897
FXUS63 KLBF 012042
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 28 TO 32 C WILL PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S IN THIS REGION.
AT THIS TIME, WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES KEEPING ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT
BAY FOR THE TIME BEING. THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH, WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH NEBRASKA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN SOME RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE EVENING. AS THIS TIME, THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS MARGINAL WHICH CORRELATES WELL TO THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE.
IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SOME STRONGER TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LESS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS. STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
BECOME WIDESPREAD, IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
RISK DOES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR-DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN.
FOR TEMPERATURES, THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEEK WILL
USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE
LOW 90S TO LOW 100S ON MONDAY INTO THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, RETURNING TO THE 90S BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DROP
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY MORNING TO THE 50S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING
AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS RH VALUES
DROP AND WINDS INCREASE. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH VALUES DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONES 204 AND 210 FROM LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO THESE STRONG WINDS, LOWER
RH VALUES, AND FUELS THAT ARE STILL PARTIALLY CURED AND READY TO
BURN. OVERNIGHT RH VALUES WILL RECOVER ONLY IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE HOWEVER, INCREASING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME,
BUT WILL KEEP FIRE CONDITIONS AS NEAR-CRITICAL DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RH.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204-210.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
FIRE WEATHER...KULIK
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