580
FXUS63 KLBF 021137
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
_ MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
80S FOR THURSDAY WITH 90S RETURNING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY IS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS WYOMING
AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM
CANADA. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-20% ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
EVEN WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL, FUELS ARE THERE DUE TO THE OVERALL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH 10PM MDT. AS A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT, WINDS WILL STAY UP. IN
FACT, GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. HUMIDITY RECOVERY
WILL ALSO BE POOR, GENERALLY BELOW 60% FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
183.
A CLASSIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKDOWN OCCURS MONDAY AS MORE FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN BY AFTERNOON A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. AGAIN, VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED, AND THE WIND SHIFT IS A CONCERN. ALSO OF
CONCERN WOULD BE IF ANY ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING
BRINGING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INVOF THE FRONT, STORM COVERAGE WILL BE INITIALLY ISOLATED WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DECENT CAPPING WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INITIALLY. BY EVENING, COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SEEMS LIKE A
BETTER BET ATTM WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MID LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH
THIS IN MIND, HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHEST POPS INTO MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT MONDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING MONDAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CAPPING
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA, THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL ATTM. IF STORMS DO INITIATE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA, STALLING OVER KANSAS. EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS,
ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THE FRONT, A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AND TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT, LEADING TO INCREASED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC EC SOLN THE LATEST NBM HAS A BROAD SWATH OF 60 TO
70% CHANCES OF QPF>0.10 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED TO A LESSER DEGREE WITH THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS
SOLNS TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
SEEMS REASONABLE ATTM. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MID LEVEL HTS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SW CONUS
NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS LOW. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 80S FOR THURSDAY WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE 90S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE
HORIZON THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS IS
INDICATING H85 TEMPS APPROACHING THE MID 30SC ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (AUG 9-10).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING REACHING GUSTS UP TO
25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KTS. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 06Z MONDAY
AND MAY REACH 45 KTS FROM THE SOUTH AT 2000 FT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204-210.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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