745
FXUS63 KLBF 022038
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO PRECIPITATION MONDAY
EVENING ALONG WITH COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 28 TO 32 C WILL PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HEAT
INDICES AT OR JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES KEEPING ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT
BAY FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER, THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. A WIND
SHIFT IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY EVENING BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH NEBRASKA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN SOME RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE EVENING. AS THIS TIME, THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS MARGINAL WHICH CORRELATES WELL TO THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AS CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA WHERE A MORE PROMINENT CAP WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED
ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LESS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. WHILE THE SEVERE RISK
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREATS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION MID-WEEK AND OUTSIDE OF A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
RISE FROM THE 70S ON TUESDAY BACK INTO THE 90S ON SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DROP FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY
MORNING TO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
MORNING GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE,
THE ONLY MAJOR WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION.
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SURFACE SMOKE, BUT SOME MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 6 MILES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS A RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10PM MT TONIGHT FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND RH
DOWN TO 12 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT RH VALUES WILL RECOVER ONLY IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS RH VALUES DROP AND WINDS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR 16 PERCENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY RESULTING IN SOME
ENHANCED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIMITED RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MAINLY
BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY LIGHTNING THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE STARTS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONES 204 FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY
EVENING DUE TO THESE STRONG WINDS, LOWER RH VALUES, LIMITED
RAINFALL, AND FUELS THAT ARE STILL PARTIALLY CURED AND READY TO
BURN.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-210.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NEZ204.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
FIRE WEATHER...KULIK
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