439
FXUS63 KLBF 031103
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
603 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.
- THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION (60-70% CHANCES) IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST ARE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
80S FOR THURSDAY WITH 90S RETURNING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY IS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A CLASSIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKDOWN OCCURS TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AS MENTIONED A CLASSIC RIDGE BREAKDOWN OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ROUGHLY EXTEND
FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO OGALLALA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A RATHER DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO,
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACED BASED DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ATOP THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE
FRONT. EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, DCAPE
VALUES (AT LEAST THROUGH MID-EVENING) WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING
SEVERE GUSTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION DEEPENS THE COOLER AIR THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH, APPEAR LIKELY THIS
EVENING AS THE THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
KANSAS. LATE THIS EVENING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
BE DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...AS IT WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE CONTINUED
DEEPENING COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. COOLEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WHERE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THE FRONT, PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE INHERITED
FORECAST HAS A BROAD SWATH OF 60 TO 70% POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE NBM
ENSEMBLES TONIGHT, THERE IS A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 12 HR
QPF> 0.01 INCHES IN THESE AREAS ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. WHEN
THIS THRESHOLD IS INCREASED TO 0.10 INCHES, PROBABILITIES FALL
OFF TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS, EC AND
NAM12 SOLNS DEVELOP A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO LIKELY POPS. RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE SW CONUS BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH THE RIDGE PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER READINGS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY, READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S THURSDAY WITH
90S RETURNING TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND SOME
READINGS UP TO 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST STATISTICAL MEX GUIDANCE MENTIONS 102 FOR
A HIGH SATURDAY FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 103 FOR VALENTINE. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH CEILINGS FALLING OFF
TO 10000 FT AGL BY 00Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
TERMINAL AROUND 00Z TUESDAY LEADING TO A THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT WILL PEAK DURING THE 00Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME AND WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS AND
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2SM ARE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER 04Z TONIGHT WITH BROKEN
CEILINGS AROUND 10000 FT AGL PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CEILINGS FALLING FROM 20000 FT AGL THIS MORNING TO
10000 FT AGL BY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MINOR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
HOWEVER WITH THE THREAT BEING LOW, WILL FORGO MENTION WITH THIS
TAF FORECAST PACKAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR CRITICAL AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
ORIENTED FROM OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH BY 00Z TUESDAY. WIND GUST
POTENTIAL UP TO 40 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS PROBABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 MINIMUM RH THIS AFTERNOON
REACHES 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS A RED FLAG
WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TODAY AND
THIS RFW WILL CONTINUE UNCHANGED. WAS CONSIDERING EXPANSION OF
THE RFW INTO ZONE 210, HOWEVER, AFTERNOON RH ONLY REACHES 20 TO
25 PERCENT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SW NEBRASKA THIS EVENING,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. WITH A LIMITED THREAT
INITIALLY FOR DRY LIGHTNING. HOWEVER WITH PWATS IN THE 1 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE PRECEDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SW NEBRASKA,
THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW, HOWEVER CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO DURING INITIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBLE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING IN THE HWO AND FWF, HOWEVER DO NOT FEEL THE THREAT
IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION OF THE RFW INTO ZONE 210.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
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