225
FXUS63 KLBF 031943
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
243 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT TODAY
WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY BEFORE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 28 TO 31 C INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW 90S TO LOW 100S BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND STRONGER WINDS, CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR PRECIPITATION, THIS COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE EVENING. CONVECTION INITIATION TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATING THE
ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED AND READY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 5PM AND 7PM, BEING DISCRETE
INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH A NARROW
RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
AND INSTABILITY WANES. SOME LINGERING STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
FORCING PERSISTS THROUGH 06Z. ALL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT CT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP NEARLY 25 DEGREES FROM MONDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING NEARLY 20 DEGREES. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 8 TO 12 C RANGE, SURFACE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE
THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS (NORMAL HIGH
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S; NORMAL LOW IN THE LOW 60S). THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 90S AND LOW 100S BY SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH NEBRASKA. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
SEVERE RISK IS LOW AS LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD STILL GET SOME
GOOD RAINS AS AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 COULD SEE UP TO A
HALF INCH OR MORE OF QPF.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION MID-WEEK AND OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING,CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY BRINGING NOT ONLY GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS, BUT ALSO A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTH BY EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT CT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY
MAJOR WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SMOKE COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 6 MILES
MAY BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
RH VALUES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONG. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING
IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AS WELL AS A WIND
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIMITED
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT INITIALLY LEADING TO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHICH MAY
RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE STARTS. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONE 204 DUE TO THESE STRONG WINDS, LOWER RH VALUES,
LIMITED RAINFALL, AND FUELS THAT ARE STILL PARTIALLY CURED AND READY
TO BURN.
INCREASED MOISTURE DUE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BRING A RETURN TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE CONCERNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE CONCERNS HEADING INTO LATE THIS
WEEK.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
FIRE WEATHER...KULIK
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