071
FXUS63 KLBF 040813
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
313 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
_ MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
80S FOR THURSDAY WITH 90S RETURNING FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
- THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY IS LOW WITH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVING ON MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
H5 ANALYSIS HAD AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. NORTH OF THE HIGH,
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AROUND CHURCHILL MANITOBA,
SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. EAST OF THE
TROUGH, RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS FEATURE, A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC, SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT CT. AS OF 2 AM CDT, THIS FEATURE WAS
ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM SIOUX CITY, TO HASTINGS, TO SOUTH OF
MCCOOK. WELL BEHIND THE FRONT, A BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED FROM NEAR HYANNIS TO NORTH OF O'NEILL. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, 2 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 DEGREES AT
GORDON, TO 70 DEGREES AT OGALLALA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF
AN H700 FRONT AND GENERALLY EAST OF APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON, THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CONTINUED COOL AIR ADVECTION TODAY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WARMUP. FOR HIGHS TODAY,
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE WARM MAV GUIDANCE AND WELL ABOVE THE VERY COOL
MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE NORTH PLATTE, THIS YIELDED A HIGH OF 73
TODAY. THIS WAS IN CONTRAST WITH THE MET'S HIGH OF 66 DEGREES
WHICH IS AT THE 10TH%ILE OF THE NBM ENSEMBLE SPREAD. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, TIMED WITH
A SHORTWAVE, WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE NBM ENSEMBLE QPF
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE FORECAST TONIGHT, I AM MUCH LESS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT DECENT RAINFALL. IN FACT THE 0.01 AND 0.10
EXCEEDENCE THRESHOLDS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT LOWER THAN WHAT WAS
IN LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, POPS WERE DROPPED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY POPS
WERE ELIMINATED FROM THE FORECAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND SOME LIMITED
AFTERNOON CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH A POSSIBILITY OF 80 IN THE FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST
BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA NOT SEEING THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF THIS AIRMASS UNTIL FRIDAY. FOR THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WEST. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY FEATURING HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER WITH ITS
FORECAST TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND IS REFLECTED WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THEIR MEAN
HIGHS, NORTH PLATTE COULD SEE 100+ DEGREE READINGS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLN HAS H85 TEMPS OF 30+
C ACROSS SW NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAR SW NEBRASKA
ECLIPSING 35C FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
UPWARD IN THE NBM AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GFS SOLNS, WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO MESSAGE THE HEAT FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THEY APPEAR
LIMITED THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MAY FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHICH
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM AND POPS
WERE NOT INCREASED OVER THE SLIGHT CHANCE, LOW END CHANCE POPS
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 15-25
KTS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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