550
FXUS63 KLBF 050523
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
ARE SLOWLY PUSHING OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PUSHES IN, BUT ACROSS
THE SOUTH, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PIVOT
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, THE SEVERE RISK WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOW, BUT A SOME SMALL HAIL OR STRONGER
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE
TO TREND DOWNWARD, STILL EXPECTING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SEE UP TO QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY NOON CT GIVING WAY TO DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AS
WELL FOR WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY AFFECT THE SURFACE,
IT COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS FOR THOSE SENSITIVE
TO SMOKE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 12 TO 16 C RANGE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH LITTLE SOLAR HEATING TODAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 90S AND LOW
100S BY SATURDAY LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THESE HIGHS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST
PROBABILITY FORECASTS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING OVER 100 DEGREES
TO BE 40 TO 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE, PROBABILITIES ARE STILL NEAR 30 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME, WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY HOT, HEAT INDICIES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER, IF THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES AND
CONFIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HEAT HEADLINES MAY
BE NECESSARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS AT KLBF ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME SO WILL
OMIT. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT MVFR SO WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AS A RESULT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH.
SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS. KVTN WILL UNLIKELY SEE ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...NMJ
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