948
FXUS63 KLBF 050831
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
331 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN TO THE 80S/90S, INCREASING FURTHER TO 90S/NEAR 100F
THIS WEEKEND.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIP
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN LARGELY VARIABLE AS A
RESULT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD BODE
FAVORABLE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS DEW POINT
READINGS RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. EARLY TUESDAY
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HINTED AT FAIRLY EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THE MET SOLUTION EVEN SUGGESTED A FEW
LOCATIONS MAKING A RUN AT THE UPPER 30S IN OUR FAR WESTERN
SANDHILLS. OUTSIDE OF THE SHELTERED AREAS, EXPECTED VALUES TO HOLD
IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST AND PERHAPS THE UPPER 40S
FOR SOME IN THE PROTOTYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING. MODEST ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN H7 TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO DAWN. MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS 0-6KM BWD, THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A BROADER STRONG THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. THAT SAID, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL
MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE SPC KEEPS A MARGINAL
RISK SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR AREAS WELL TO THE EAST AND THIS
ALIGNS WITH WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS OF
ACTIVITY: INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BY 3-4AM CDT WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SOUTH OF THE PLATTE VALLEY AND MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE FURTHER WEST TOWARDS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERCOLATE THROUGH MID AND LATE MORNING BEFORE
DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE EXIT OF MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAVE THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN EROSION OF
CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND GIVEN THE LATE SUMMER
INSOLATION, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND EASILY. AS A RESULT,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE BOOSTED WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE, FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR AUGUST. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST, A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOCUS WILL REMAIN NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNAFFECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW VALUES TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS, GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA.
THURSDAY...DEEP TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AS UPPER-
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED FLOW CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD
IN. WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING CAPPING AROUND H75 WITH MLCIN VALUES
EXCEEDING 100 J/KG. WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, IT'S
APPEARING LIKELY THAT THE DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WHERE THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL HAVE FAIRLY LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. DRIER, DOWNSLOPING AIR IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF
THIS AND SHOULD YIELD MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S HIGHS WHILE SOUTHERLY
MOIST FLOW BENEATH COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD THESE AREAS
INTO THE 80S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH H85 FLOW
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. THIS MAY PROMOTE GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.
WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASED MUGGINESS AND SHOULD TEMPER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS A RESULT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT, RIDGING
ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN DE- AMPLIFIES. WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY WITH THE HEAT RIDGE BUILDING EAST
INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKING AT THE NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS > 100 DEGREES FOR NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDANCE HAVE COME DOWN
SOMEWHAT FROM LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST (ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20%).
NO SURPRISE, THE LATEST NBM HAS HIGHS PEAKING JUST UNDER 100
DEGREES IN SW NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN LIGHT OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND STATISTICAL MEX GUIDANCE WHICH IS WARMER
WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY (105 AND 104 RESPECTIVELY FOR NORTH PLATTE), AND THE
EC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS 92 AND 97 FOR HIGHS, FEEL THE NBM FORECAST
IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AS IT MEETS THESE TWO GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN
THE MIDDLE. THAT BEING SAID, WITH READINGS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE HEAT
POTENTIAL. BY LATE SUNDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL ATTEMPT TO FORCE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE FORECAST INITIALIZED WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO LIE OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN PCPN OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS IS NOT HIGH ATTM. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE FRONT BEING ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ON TUESDAY,
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS AT KLBF ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME SO WILL
OMIT. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT MVFR SO WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AS A RESULT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH.
SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS. KVTN WILL UNLIKELY SEE ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...NMJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page