709
FXUS63 KLBF 060515
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1215 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NEAR-DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TOMORROW AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
DEVELOPMENT AS THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS IN THE CAMS AND
AMPLE CIN REMAINS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
IF THERE CAN BE ENOUGH REMOVAL OF THE CIN DURING THE DAY, THERE
WOULD BE A NARROW WINDOW BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM FOR DEVELOPMENT WHERE A
RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTO THE
SANDHILLS THAT WOULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. NOT ENTIRELY
CERTAIN THIS WILL HAPPEN, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING AND
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AROUND 9PM CT. A DRY FORECAST WILL
THEN RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL (LOW 60S).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS PIVOT THROUGH
THROUGH NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR NEAR DAILY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME
THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY OTHER MAJOR
CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOW 90S EAST OF A
BRADY TO VALENTINE LINE. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THESE HIGHS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ACHIEVE OVER 100
DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST PROBABILITY FORECASTS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING OVER 100 DEGREES TO BE 40 TO 50 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE,
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY HOT, HEAT INDICIES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 100 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, IF THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY. WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH, THEY WON'T BE QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE WEEKEND AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS AND SOME
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 90S IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE LOW 90S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH IFR/LOCALLY
LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. THIS LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, AT 5 TO 10KTS. WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30KTS EXPECTED
FOR ALL TERMINALS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR NEZ027>029-038-057>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...BROWN
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