253
FXUS63 KLBF 061131
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY A MINOR THREAT
FOR STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
READINGS RETREATING TO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PUSH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS, AS WELL AS
HOLT COUNTY. WILL KEEP THE EXPIRATION AS IS AT 10 AM CDT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
CURRENTLY, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.
THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE AREA
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 2. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR DENSE FOG, AND CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCREASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS BY LATE THIS MORNING, AND THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ANY LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING RICHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK NORTHWARDS, WITH LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60 DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, A SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR HWY 61, WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE ALONG THIS DRYLINE WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS LOW FOR NOW, WITH VERY WEAK
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT. THAT SAID, GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LINGERING CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF STORMS FORMING REMAINS PLAUSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
LOOK TO BECOME ORGANIZED, WITH AMPLE FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO LONG AND
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE WOULD BE FAVORED IN
ANY UPDRAFTS THAT CAN SUSTAIN, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET, AS INHIBITION QUICKLY INCREASES AGAIN.
A SURFACE COOL FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING, AND STALL NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS WELL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. WINDS
QUICKLY RETURN EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY, WITH MIDDLE 60 DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO POOL WHEREVER THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP. ANY CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE, THOUGH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WOULD LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE LATEST NBM FORECAST INITIATED WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE
NBM ENSEMBLE QPF EXCEEDANCE FORECAST WHICH HAS 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES OF QPF>0.01" FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC NAM12 SOLN
TONIGHT WHICH DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET, CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF DECENT MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION. WITH THE NBM FORECAST CAPPING POPS UNDER 20 PERCENT,
FEEL THE INITIALIZED FORECAST IS PLAUSIBLE ATTM. MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE NAM12 AND GFS IS LACKING SATURDAY WITH ITS FORECAST
OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS LIFTS THIS FEATURE NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE NAM 12 SOLN
STALLING THIS FEATURE ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. NO
SURPRISE, THE LATEST MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR LBF
SATURDAY ARE 87 AND 101 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE LARGE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS, THE NBM IS PREFERRED HERE
AND WAS UTILIZED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SECOND DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. THE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WEST MONDAY AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE HIGH RETROGRADING
WEST, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
READINGS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ATTM, THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: EXPECT SOME FOG TO IMPACT THE KLBF
TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VISBYS IN THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE
AND CIGS BLO 1000 FT AGL. FOG AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BURN
OFF BY 16Z THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A MINOR THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, THIS EVENING. SINCE THIS THREAT IS HIGHLY
ISOLATED, WILL FORGO MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ010-023>029-035>038-057>059-069>071.
UPDATE...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page