792
FXUS63 KLBF 200539
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS.
- RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WILL TRANSITION EAST, THEN
BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND, THEN COOLER READINGS, ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.
- THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
BEST.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
H5 PATTERN THIS MORNING HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH NORTHWEST INTO IDAHO AND EASTERN
OREGON. LOW PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON BAY OF CANADA. A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, BROAD WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. EARLIER TODAY, STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKED FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM AROUND VALENTINE, SOUTH TO JUST
EAST OF NORTH PLATTE. THIS FRONT HAS FURTHER BEEN REINFORCED BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. AS OF 2 PM CDT, SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
EAST AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 75
DEGREES AT BROKEN BOW, AINSWORTH AND O'NEILL TO 87 DEGREES AT
OGALLALA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. BASED ON SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, DID INTRODUCE A MENTION OF FOG
FOR THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. THIS WAS MAINLY FOR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME SITUATED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION INVOF THIS BOUNDARY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INVOF
THE FRONT COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+ KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL, HOWEVER, IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, THEY WILL HAVE A
HIGH PROBABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE. ATTM FEEL THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHWEST, H5 HT RISES ARE NOTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL INCREASE CAPPING ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST CONFINED POPS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST
CAMS, EXTENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPPING
STRENGTH WILL BE MUCH WEAKER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLNS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT FROM
NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL HTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
LATEST MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, LOWER TO MIDDLE 70 DEW POINTS WILL PUSH INTO THE
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SANDHILLS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LATEST NAM SOLN DEVELOPS
5000+ J/KG CAPES NORTH OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP
LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, CO-LOCATED WITH THE HIGH CAPE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50+ KTS WILL LEAD TO A DECENT THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL. ALSO, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND FORECAST 200+ 0-2 KM
HELICITIES WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE FRONT ALSO ARE
INDICATIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT WITH LOW LEVEL CURVATURE NOTED
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H850. IN THE WAKE OF EXITING CONVECTION
FRIDAY NIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 80 IN THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHWEST, HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER SW NEBRASKA. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY,
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING INVOF A THETA E RIDGE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EAST SATURDAY EVENING. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSES SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH CONTINUED WARM READINGS IN THE SW CWA. NORTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING,
PRIMARILY EAST OF HWY 83. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
IFR/LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. BY LATE THIS MORNING,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AND THEN PREVAIL INTO
TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT, AT 5 TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BROWN
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