746
FXUS63 KLBF 211749
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1249 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH BOTH ROUNDS POTENTIALLY BRINGING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE THIS MORNING, AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SECOND MAY OCCUR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, BUT
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MORNING STORMS AFFECT THE ENVIRONMENT.
- EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND SHEAR, WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA WITH NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT, PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTION TO INITIATE. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED, A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CAPE REMAINS ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER
UPDRAFTS PROVIDED STORMS INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX PASSING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, WILL SEE
AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BEING ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS, EXPECT THAT SOME ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPDRAFTS
CAN TAP INTO THE ELEVATED CAPE. ASSUMING THE STRONGER CELLS CAN
UTILIZE THIS LAYER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THE MAIN THREAT IN THE
MORNING WOULD BE LARGE HAIL, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS, EITHER. HOWEVER, WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ELEVATED, BELIEVE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS GREATLY DECREASED
FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
THE EXPECTED MORNING CONVECTION THROWS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS CLOUDS LINGER
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION, THIS MAY HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY
REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON HOW THIS
PLAYS OUT. IN FACT, SOME SOLUTIONS, SUCH AS THE NAM NEST AND GFS
SHOW THAT THE MORNING CONVECTION MOSTLY WIPES OUT THE INSTABILITY IN
THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LITTLE REBUILD POSSIBLE, AND ANY INSTABILITY
THAT DOES RECOVER REMAINING MOSTLY ALOFT. HOWEVER, OTHER SOLUTIONS,
SUCH AS THE HRRR, SUGGEST THAT A NARROW STRIP OF INSTABILITY MAY
REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND POTENTIALLY BUILD
SHOULD CLOUDS MORE QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. SHOULD THE FIRST
SCENARIO OCCUR, WHICH DOES APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY, THEN
EXPECTING THAT THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW TOMORROW.
IF THIS HAPPENS, REALLY DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION, AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOSTLY BE
WORKED OVER AND BECOME MORE STABLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL THAT THE SECOND SCENARIO ARISES, WHICH WOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD, EXPECTING THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH REMNANT CAPE AND SHEAR TO INITIALLY SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS, BUT SHOULD SEE STORMS QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE ALREADY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THIS MAY ALSO KEEP
STORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT AT
THIS POINT, WOULD MOSTLY EXPECT THESE TO BE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS OCCURS ON FRIDAY,
WILL STILL EXPECT TO SEE HIGHER PRESSURE TRACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
DEVELOPING AGAIN. THIS BRINGS ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, PROVIDED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ONGOING. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AFTER THE
MORNING CONVECTION TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR POTENTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT MAY BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
AS FOR SATURDAY, EXPECTING MOSTLY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, WITH A SHORT BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES LOOK
TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, AND COMBINING THAT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAY SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A STRONG COOL OFF, AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S, BUT AS OF NOW, NOT EXPECTING HIGHS TO
BREAK INTO THE 90S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. THIS FLOW WILL
BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A DECENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AS THIS
FEATURE TRACKS EAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA, RIDGING
WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BACK INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH LOCATIONS IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SEEING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST AND
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A STEADY STREAM OF DISTURBANCES
TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, AND A
CONTINUATION OF DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE LATEST NBM
PROBABILISTIC QPF FORECAST HAS GOOD CHANCES 30-50% OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIALIZED
NBM FORECAST HAS DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35
TO 50 KTS PERSISTS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT
THE DETERMINISTIC EC AND GFS, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
REMAIN STATIC ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD
BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY
WINDS. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO AROUND 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...GOMEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page