849
FXUS63 KLBF 212344
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
644 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
TONIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
LULL IN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO MID EVENING, THEN AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED AFTER 9PM CT. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE SO THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY
THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IS MEDIUM, AS THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE TONIGHT AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING. IF STORMS FORM HOWEVER, GENERALLY
EXPECT MOST OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL GENERALLY BE
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
MODERATE, SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATION, NEAR THE BOUNDARY. PWAT
VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES. DEPENDING WHERE
STORMS SET UP THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES.
ALTHOUGH THE SANDHILLS CAN USUALLY INTAKE A LOT OF RAINFALL,
RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREA THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN NEAR 3
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS AND HAVE SEEN SOIL MOISTURE SATURATION
AROUND 50 TO 70 PERCENT, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA CLOSELY.
AS FOR SATURDAY MORNING, THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG IN THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MORNING CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AFTER EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LOW AND EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THERE WILL BE A
GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH DISTURBANCES THAT
MOVE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA AND WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT
WHERE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR ANY STRONG STORM. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD,
POSSIBLY IMPACTING BOTH TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
OF THIS THAT ONLY A PROB30 GROUP WAS INTRODUCED. REGARDLESS, BOTH
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY UNTIL
SUNRISE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KTS UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS WILL FIRMLY BE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...MRS
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