384
FXUS63 KLBF 221136
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THIS MORNING, BRINGING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEADING TO A DAILY THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAILY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE NORTHEAST, TO
AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAIRLY WORKED FROM
YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION, AND GENERALLY FAIRLY STABLE. HOWEVER, STILL
HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME MORE
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE EARLY MORNING STORMS IS THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT, AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORM DEVELOPMENT,
LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS SIGNAL REMAINS
STRONGEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, WHERE SOILS REMAIN QUITE MOIST FROM
THE PREVIOUS FEW RAIN EVENTS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
CAN DEVELOP AND IN LOW LYING REGIONS.
AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING, EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK FROM
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY, LIMITING THE ABILITY FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE 80S, WITH UPPER 80S
REALLY ONLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET, EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST, WHICH MAY LIMIT OUR DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
ADDITION TO THE ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY. IN GENERAL, EXPECTING
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
AND EAST. AT THIS POINT, THINKING THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL YET
AGAIN. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS, AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH. AGAIN, THINKING THE
GREATER THREAT FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL BE AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83, WHERE THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN AMPLE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW
DAYS, WITH FAIRLY SATURATED SOILS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEARLY
STATIONARY NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY ALSO SET UP A NOTABLE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, MAY SEE HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
90S. HOWEVER, ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO ONLY THE UPPER 70S. AT THIS TIME, THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT COULD SEE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGING
WILL BE TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT BY
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA. AS
THIS FEATURE TRACKS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK,
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BACK INTO MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST, WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 DEGREES.
READINGS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL REACH INTO THE
LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE,
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30+ KTS LOOKS PROBABLE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS DAILY. WITH THETAE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK, STORMS APPEAR TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
ALMOST DAILY. STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON
THE LATEST NBM FORECAST, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20000
FT AGL TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN AT 15000 FT AGL THIS
EVENING THEN 10000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30
GROUP. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CEILINGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO 10000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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