614
FXUS63 KLBF 222000
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S FOR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WARMING TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT FROM MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEPARTED PRIOR TO DAWN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
GRADUALLY, DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SHOWS NO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT SO IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH FOR
THAN A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WE SHOULD
SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES ADDED TO THESE VALUES THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25
MPH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WYOMING
AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS,
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REINFORCE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S DEW
POINTS REACHING THE FRONT RANGE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR EVEN AS RESIDUAL
CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE FURTHER
EAST, STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AND A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION FURTHER EAST INTO THE EVENING. THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TRIMMED UP THE
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BUT IT STILL
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF OUR PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES.
GIVEN STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY, BELIEVE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, INDICATIONS ARE
THAT ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN TOWARDS HIGHWAY 83 LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY DRIVEN BY INCREASED THETA-E ADVECTION FROM
AN INCREASING LLJ. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AS LAPSE
RATES DECREASE SO ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL LARGELY BE OVER BY LATE
THIS EVENING BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY,
HAVE GIVEN POPS A BOOST FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH VALUES IN
THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE. HREF LOCALIZED PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN
SHOWS SPOTTY COVERAGE OF QPF > 1.50" WITH A REASONABLE BUFFER OF
AMOUNTS SURPASSING 0.25". THIS ALIGNS NEARLY PERFECTLY WITH HIGHWAY
83 THROUGH 12Z (7AM CDT) SUNDAY AND GENERALLY MATCHES THE
ANTICIPATED WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY (MEANING MOST
LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY). WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
BOOSTED SLIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BY EARLY SUNDAY, THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY. THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY SIGNAL
THE END OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HAVE POPS ENDING FOR OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING. FURTHER EAST, PARTICULARLY NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS AND
POINTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIMITED INSTABILITY LOCALLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE EXPECTED FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
THREAT AND THIS ALIGNS WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK WHICH KEEPS
ANY SEVERE MENTION TO OUR NORTH. THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURE FORECAST
PROVED TRICKY, WITH LARGE VARIATIONS IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (~10F
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MET AND MAV GUIDANCE). UTILIZED A BLEND OF BOTH
TO LAND IN THE MIDDLE BUT FAVORED THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY
GIVEN ANTICIPATED LONGER DWELLING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTED IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS/PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED ZONAL TO QUASI-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND ALLOW PREDOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THESE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED TRAILING COOL FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE NEAR-DAILY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOCALLY WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THE EXPECTED PROXIMITY TO A
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL LARGELY KEEP SEVERE WEATHER IN PLAY THOUGH
DAY-TO-DAY PREDICTABILITY WILL LARGELY HINGE ON MESOSCALE FEATURES
THAT COARSER MID-RANGE MODELS WILL STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS
TIMESCALE. WHILE THE PATTERN DOESN'T SUGGEST WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS TO SEE WETTING RAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND THURSDAY
WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 0.25" RAINFALL CLIMB TO AROUND 25-
35 PERCENT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THIS WILL LARGELY COME DOWN TO
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WON'T BE FORECASTED WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE FOR A FEW DAYS STILL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIGS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE
TERMINALS AND MAKE AN EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE EVENING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, NAMELY THE MORNING HREF RUN, SHOWS RAPIDLY
DECREASING QPF PROBABILITIES ON APPROACH TO BOTH KLBF AND KVTN
AND THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON STORM MAINTAINENCE/IMPACTS AT
EITHER SITE. SIMILARLY, LATE MORNING DETERMINISTIC HRRR OUTPUT
SHOWS SIMILAR LOW-CONFIDENCE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT. ALL THIS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IS LOW
SO WILL COVER WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR BOTH SITE AS A RESULT.
FOLLOWING CONVECTION, LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PRESIST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5KFT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
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