941
FXUS63 KLBF 231152
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, LEADING
TO NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MIDDLE TO THE
END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO BACK INTO EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH FROM THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION, CONTINUING TO PROVIDE AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY,
SEEING SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT MAINTAINING FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
TODAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES, WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE 00Z LBF
SOUNDING SHOWING 1.39 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY EVENING. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL
AS CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE AFTERNOON, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, EXPECTING
A WEAK BOUNDARY TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BEST WITH A WIND SHIFT AROUND 850 MB COINCIDING WITH A THETA-E
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE JUST SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND MOST LIKELY
EVEN EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS
RELATIVELY PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RAIN, AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, WPC HAS PUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WITH THIS PERSISTENT
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, WILL BE VERY HARD TO BUILD ANY MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, SO BELIEVE THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION,
WHILE SOME INSTABILITY MAY BUILD, EXPECTING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
IN THE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL JET FORCING SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BRING EVEN MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
AGAIN REMAINING MOSTLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR. AGAIN, NOT
EXPECTING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION, ALSO CUTTING OFF THE LOW
LEVEL JET, EXPECTING A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WILL SEE THE ABILITY FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS LIKE MOST
DAYS IN THE RECENT PATTERN, SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION, PROVIDING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY
LATE AFTERNOON, MAY BEGIN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY COMBINED WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ON HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT. AT THIS
TIME, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THIS FORECAST AS
THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT CHANGES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL TRAVERSE SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT, FORCING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
NAM12 AND GFS SOLNS ALONG WITH THE NBM ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLES INDICATE 60 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.10" OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM GORDON TO BROKEN BOW. THE NBM
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT HAS SOME HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY POPS IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THIS LOOKS ON TRACK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH, WILL TRACK
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS TODAY
WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 4000 TO 10000 FT AGL. SKIES WILL THEN
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
COVERAGE AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE, WILL FORGO MENTIONING THE
THREAT WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL:
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 6000 TO 10000 FT AGL TODAY SCATTERING
OUT AND LIFTING TO 25000 FT AGL THIS EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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