666
FXUS63 KLBF 231856
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
156 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
LEADING TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO, WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER EASTERN WY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND THE
NEBR. PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AND
EFFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS, A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, WITH THE 18Z KLBF SOUNDING INDICATING 1.57 INCHES
PWAT. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
183. THIS WILL BE WHERE WEAK WAA EXIST NEAR 700MB AS A WEAK
700MB TROUGH PROGRESSES EATEWARD AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO ALONG THE LEESIDE OF
THE BLACK HILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS
THE WEST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL WITH ANY ISOLATED DESCRETE
STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH TIME, STORMS MAY MERGE WITH COLD
POOLS, WITH DAMGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE AREA OF
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH
HAYES CENTER, WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
TUESDAY, THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A WARM
FRONT IS SHOWN TO EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE
NE/KS BORDER. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST BY SPC FOR AREAS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I80.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTER PERSISTS ACROSS AZ AND NM. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, FAVORABLE FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN HEATING INTO THE LOW 90S WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT EAST OF THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.
OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS,
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. AT KLBF A
SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 00Z, WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BELOW 12KT AFTER 00Z AND OVERNIGHT. AT
KVTN, A SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUST TO 25KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AFTER 05Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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