753
FXUS63 KLBF 240530
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
LEADING TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO, WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER EASTERN WY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND THE
NEBR. PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS, A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
83. THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH THE 18Z KLBF SOUNDING INDICATING
1.57 INCHES PWAT. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST, MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. THIS WILL BE WHERE WEAK WAA EXIST NEAR 700MB AS A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO ALONG THE LEESIDE OF
THE BLACK HILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS
THE WEST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL WITH ANY ISOLATED
DISCRETE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH TIME, STORMS MAY MERGE
WITH COLD POOLS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
AREA OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS WEST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH HAYES CENTER, WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND EXIT SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
TUESDAY, THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A WARM
FRONT IS SHOWN TO EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE
NE/KS BORDER. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST BY SPC FOR AREAS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I80.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTER PERSISTS ACROSS AZ AND NM. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, FAVORABLE FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN HEATING INTO THE LOW 90S WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL
JET IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHICH MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE LLWS IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER KLBF OR
KVTN, WINDS AROUND 2,000 FT AGL MAY REMAIN AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH 4
AM CDT. SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT TOMORROW, AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS, AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...RICHIE
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