595
FXUS63 KLBF 240808
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TODAY AND TOMORROW. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- WITH RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS PERIODIC DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
- HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE
90S WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN
BY A LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE JET WEAKENS AROUND DAYLIGHT, EXPECTING
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION, BUT WITH PWAT
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA, EVENTUALLY TRACKING INTO NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS,
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
BRINGING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN A MOSTLY QUIET
PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG
BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING 2,000-3,000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS, STILL EXPECT AROUND 30 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, AND
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WITH THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT,
EXPECTING THAT LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT,
HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY
IN STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. OF COURSE, WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH SLOWER
MOVING CELLS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT, STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
THOUGH GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW
OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, WHICH MAY INITIATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOCATION OF STORMS WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT. FOR NOW, THIS
APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAIRLY TALL CAPE
PROFILE AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT, THIS MAY SET UP ANOTHER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AS
MENTIONED, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT, AS WELL AS
HOW THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT'S
CONVECTION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INVOF
THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. ATTM, THE EC, NAM12 AND GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOLNS HAVE THIS FAVORABLE FORCING OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
FAR SW NEBRASKA. THIS IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST NBM
FORECAST. ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL ENTER
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FORCING WARMER AIR EAST ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
FURTHER RESULTING IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO DRIVE WARM AIR
FURTHER EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL REACH IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE
EAST WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL
JET IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHICH MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE LLWS IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER KLBF OR
KVTN, WINDS AROUND 2,000 FT AGL MAY REMAIN AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH 4
AM CDT. SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT TOMORROW, AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS, AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...RICHIE
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