169
FXUS63 KLBF 242030
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, INITIAL THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL, THEN STORMS WILL BECOME A CLUSTER OF STORMS AND
BECOME A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF ANY OF IT WILL BE
SEVERE
- SLIGHTLY ABNORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY. LOW
LEVEL HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CAP. STORMS WILL
LIKELY START OFF DISCRETE IN NATURE BUT AS THEY ADVANCE EAST
SOUTHEAST THEY WILL CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A CLUSTER. THE MAIN
MODE OF THE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. EARLY
STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS
WITH MU CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THE HIGHEST
CAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, WEST OF
HWY 83 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH CAPE
INCREASING BY MID EVENING WEST OF HWY 83. THERE IS ALSO DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE INITIAL
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY FAVOR LARGE HAIL FIRST WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. DCAPE IS
ALSO FAVORABLE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT AS STORMS CONGEAL
INTO A CLUSTER WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EXPECT THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF WHERE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IS DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT FAVORS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER SHEAR EXIST AND MU CAPE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
COINCIDE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN, AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S, GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF I-80 ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN CONUS.
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND STALL OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE NEAR THE STALLED OUT
FRONT. THURSDAY HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS. A UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND SUPPRESS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE WARMER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE WARMER AIR WILL ALSO CREATE WARMER OVERALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE
MID 90S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND, THIS WILL FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL PUSH WARMER AIR FURTHER
EAST LEADING TO SLIGHTLY ABNORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 83 SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
CWA AS A WHOLE SUNDAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNAL OVER A
SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT
DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON WHETHER THAT TIMEFRAME WILL OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND VS THE LATE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS, IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS MODELS BECOME BETTER REFINED.
THE MULTIPLE POTENTIAL SHOTS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTS A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.25" OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THAT
PROBABILITY DROPPING TO 30 - 50 PERCENT OF AT LEAST 0.50". IF
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLD, THIS SHOULD HELP DAMPEN DROUGHT
CONCERNS SOME, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF I80.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY
EXIST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD,
BUT COULD SEE GUST OF 45 KTS OR MORE WITH WITH STRONGER STORMS.
THE GREATEST TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT ON BOTH
TERMINAL SITES IN THE EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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