488
FXUS63 KLBF 251733
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH THE MAIN
THREATS REMAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE RISK IS LESS
CERTAIN AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT'S
STORMS IMPACT THE ENVIRONMENT.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. THE COLD FRONT THAT INITIATED LAST
EVENING'S STORMS HAS MOSTLY STALLED OUT OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST. AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAIRLY WORKED OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING'S STORMS, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BUT AGAIN,
EXPECTING A RELATIVELY LOW SEVERE RISK WITH EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN PUSH DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALSO IMPORTANT WILL BE HOW LONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS MORNING. IF THE OVERNIGHT STORMS LAST
LONGER INTO THE MORNING, THIS MAY HELP LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY VALUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT, WHICH FAVORS A
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUILDING
BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, SOME OF THE STORMS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT MAY ONCE
AGAIN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN THREATS ONCE
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THINKING THE WIND THREAT WILL BE GREATEST SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE
MORE LINEARLY ALONG THE FRONT PRIOR TO TRACKING SOUTHEAST. PWATS
STILL REMAIN OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SO ANY STORMS MAY
ALSO POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL. WITH THIS
FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW FORWARD SPEED, MAY SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN, MOSTLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, IF THIS FRONT DOES TRACK A
BIT QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, THEN WE MAY SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTS TO SEE NO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT
TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, AND COMBINED WITH THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME, THIS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, EXPECTING ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW, WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AS STORMS TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST, MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH A
LITTLE LESS AMBIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE, NOT EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ALSO REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME, AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS PERIOD AS WELL, AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS, BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BRING HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS
WILL BRING A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FROM 85 TO THE LOW 90S FRIDAY, NEAR 90 TO THE MID 90S SATURDAY, AND
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RESIDE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS EACH DAY. BY MONDAY, AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIGHS
FALLING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
DESPITE DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, NBM 48
HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.25" ENDING SATURDAY MORNING IS
ONLY 15 TO 25 PERCENT AND ONLY 5 TO 15 PERCENT FOR THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD ENDING MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (AROUND A 30% TO 50% CHANCE) FROM
AROUND 04Z TO 08Z OR 09Z FOR KLBF. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE NORTH
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE VARIABLE AROUND 06Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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