744
FXUS63 KLBF 252358
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
658 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
- ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BOTH THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FOR
TODAY, THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONED INTO A STATIONARY FRONT,
EXTENDING EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST BACK INTO
THE PANHANDLE. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
HOWEVER SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. MU CAPE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THE
EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 83 AND
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.40 TO 1.60 POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SINCE
COVERAGE WON'T BE WIDESPREAD, DO BELIEVE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL BE LARGELY LOCALIZED. AS FOR TIMING OF CONVECTION, THINK
THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER 6PM CT/5PM MT,
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTION TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS POST-
FRONTAL A WEAK SW TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR SEVERE HAZARDS FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE HUDSON BAY
REGION WHILE A STRONG 597-DAM 500-MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER, AMPLE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC
DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK, AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD, RESULTING IN INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST 850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE 25 TO 30C RANGE, SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE
80S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND BETTER FORCING ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAKOTAS, WHERE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY FAVORED. HOWEVER,
SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO FLATTEN, ALLOWING STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT OVERLAPPING AMPLE
INSTABILITY, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF PERIODIC
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED, SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE TERMINALS. CURRENT TRACKS COMBINED WITH LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KLBF. AS
MUCH, WILL KEEP ANY PREVAILING MENTION OF DEGRADED CONDITIONS
OUT. BEYOND LATE TONIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT
AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...NMJ
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