068
FXUS63 KLBF 261131
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING A LARGELY DRY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY, WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS
MAY APPROACH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WITH A LOW-END CHANCE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE STRONGEST
CORES.
- DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PEAKING ON SATURDAY IN THE 90S, WITH SOME UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THIS MORNING, DECAYING CONVECTION WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND ONLY REMNANT
CIRRUS PLUMES TRAVERSING THE AREA. WEAK FLOW OFF THE SURFACE WAS
KEEPING ACTIVITY FROM SUSTAINING ITSELF LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
EVEN AS LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. DRIER AIR WAS SPILLING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. LOWS TO START
WEDNESDAY SHOULD FAVOR LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN OUR WEST WITH UPPER 50S
FURTHER EAST TO NEAR 60F.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR EARLY IN THE DAY. SURFACE HEIGHT RISES
WILL BEGIN TOWARDS MIDDAY AS INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE WANES WITH
A RETREAT TO THE NORTH. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, SERVING AS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS NORTHEAST TO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST THOUGH LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION WILL BE NOTED AS HIGHS
REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. AS LEE TROUGHING INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY BENEATH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL INCREASE WITH A MOISTURE TONGUE CLIMBING UP TOWARDS THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION CROSSING CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM WILL SUPPORT A NARROW RIBBON OF 1500-
2500 J/KG MLCAPE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY. FINAL PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP/TRACK SO CLOSE
MESOSCALE MONITORING OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE NECESSARY TO DETERMINE
WHAT RISK WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE LOCAL AREA. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY A MODEST MID-
LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERTOP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT
0-6KM BWD VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS, SUPPORTING MULTICELL AND
EVEN A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL BE
FAVORED EARLY IN THE LIFE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM. THIS KEEPS THE
FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER'S LATEST OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY PAINTS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WEST OF A CHADRON TO NORTH PLATTE
LINE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2) WELL TO THE WEST. HAVE NO
ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE
OROGRAPHIC FEATURES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AS FORCING WANES
FURTHER EAST, STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE. TUESDAY EVENING HREF
RUN HIGHLIGHTS THIS WELL WITH REASONABLE QPF PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT LITTLE SIGNAL FOR ACTIVITY TO
ARRIVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOULD ACTIVITY MAKE IT INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES, BELIEVE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. GIVEN HOW FAR WEST ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON, BELIEVE WE'LL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
LARGELY EVENING EVENT WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BEHIND DEPARTING THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE EVENING PRIOR, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AND ALLOW
DRY CONDITIONS TO RESUME ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS WYOMING, A MORE PRONOUNCED DISTURBANCE
WILL CLIMB UP AND OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
IDAHO/MONTANA/FAR NORTHERN WYOMING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND LATE IN THE DAY WILL
DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LLJ OF APPRECIABLE STRENGTH. WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE NOSE OF THIS FEATURE
AIMED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL LARGELY BE ABSENT FROM THE AREA. WHILE
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DOT THE HIGH
TERRAIN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN, STRONGER CAPPING
WILL STYMIE THIS DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD SQUASH IT BEFORE IT
MANAGES TO TRACK MUCH TO THE EAST. BECAUSE OF THIS, BELIEF IS
THAT THURSDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
HAVE REMOVED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM SUGGEST LARGELY UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYERS, STATIC IF NOT
SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF NOW LOW-LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD KEEP PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD LARGELY
MATCH VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER REMAINS OVER AZ/NM, THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION,
AS H85 TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 30C ACROSS THE WEST. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER SWRN SD, A WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND
20 TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE LOW 90S NEAR AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST. STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE EASTERN HALF OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN,
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, REACHING THE MID 90S
WEST, WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
SUNDAY, HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S, WITH LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. LOW CHANCES AGAIN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL
BRING AN INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT MAY
REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT OVERLAPPING AMPLE
INSTABILITY, THE PATTERN MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NBM 48 HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.25" ENDING
SUNDAY MORNING IS ONLY 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT AREA WIDE FOR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
KLBF UNTIL 15Z, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING WEST OF THE KLBF
TERMINAL, MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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