684
FXUS63 KLBF 160546
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1246 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 80S. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING WELL
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE, AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION RIDES NORTH FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AM EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN SANDHILLS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS SW NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE MIDDLE 50S ARE FORECAST. FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST,
LIMITED CLEARING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES. ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL MERGE WITH THE CALIFORNIA DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE H5
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SE WYOMING, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ANCHORED OVER KANSAS, WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HOW FAR NORTH THIS FEATURE LIFTS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEY TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT (MORE
ABOUT THAT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW). IN THE INTERIM,
THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SW INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS AREA IS
NORTH OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT
S TO N ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. HOW FAR THIS
FEATURE LIFTS NORTH IS STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH THIS MORNING'S
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE NAM THIS MORNING IS LEAST AGGRESSIVE
PUSHING THIS FEATURE NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SOLN HAS THIS FEATURE WELL INTO THE
NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND THE EC SOLN FROM LAST NIGHT HAS THIS
FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. THAT BEING SAID, THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS DIFFERENCE IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE
FOR LBF THURSDAY. THE MAV, MET AND EC GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LBF THURSDAY OF 92, 73 AND 85 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST NBM HAS A HIGH OF 83 FOR LBF WHICH IS
RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLEST MET GUIDANCE. THE
NBM ENSEMBLE HAS A 11 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS FOR LBF THURSDAY
WITH THE 25TH AND 75TH%LE RANGING FROM 78 TO 89 DEGREES. THIS IS
A 2 DEGREE INCREASE FROM THE SPREAD OF 9 DEGREES (81-90) IN
LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST. FOR NOW FEEL THE 83 DEGREE MARK IS
PROBABLY THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION GIVEN THE INCREASING SPREAD
IN ENSEMBLE HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER FORECAST ASPECT THAT
HINGES ON FRONTAL LOCATION IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THREE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
DEVELOP HEAVY RAIN ON NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
LOCATION OF GREATEST QPF AND BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES, RANGES
FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS (NAM SOLN), TO FAR
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA EC AND GFS SOLNS. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST QPF FORECAST AND NBM POP FORECAST, THE NORTHERN SOLNS
ARE FAVORED HERE WITH LIKELY TO LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT, THE LATEST EC EFI AND SOT FORECAST IS
INDICATING AN EFI OF .8-.9 AND A SOT OF 1-2 OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PWATS
IN THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS REACH 1.7"+ AND 1.5"+ THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 99% ILE FOR SEPTEMBER 17TH.
THAT BEING SAID, WILL PROBABLY MENTION A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
HWO. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST FROM IDAHO
TO EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ATTM THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT. BEYOND SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER, COVERAGE
WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAST CEILINGS WILL CLEAR ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LBF TO VTN. THINKING IS BY NOONTIME INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BUT COULD LINGER
A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 10-20
KTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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