623
FXUS63 KLBF 161150
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
650 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AS WELL.
- AN UNSETTLED PERIOD THAT IS LOOKING TO BE MORE ON THE WET SIDE
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
CURRENTLY, CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. FURTHER NORTH, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY, WITH THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUGGEST SOME THREAT FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL,
WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS, WITH PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA FINALLY WARMING AS CLOUDS CLEAR AFTER NOON CDT.
EAST OF HWY 83, CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS
HERE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTH
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR LIKELY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO
MID-AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR NOW, AND WILL HAVE DRASTIC
IMPACTS ON THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTIONS
LIFT THIS TOWARDS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND SUGGEST
CONCERNING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. THAT SAID, OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT DO DEVELOP ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, THEY DO SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS, LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE. ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY WOULD FEASIBLY POSE A RISK
FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS VERY LOW.
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THIS.
ANOTHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INCREASES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES, WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1.75-2.0", OR NEAR CLIMO MAXIMUMS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND LONG, SKINNY
CAPE, FURTHER SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2"+ IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3" CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTION
TRAINS. THOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
A DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONT LOCATED
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE A
FACTOR IN ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY OTHERWISE DEVELOP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY, THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
BE ENTERING WESTERN WYOMING BY LATE IN THE DAY. RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...AS BETTER
ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. IT
APPEARS THAT UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SEEMS LOW, BUT EARLY ON THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED. THE UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS WYOMING, WITH CONTINUED FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. STILL COULD BE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE DAY.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE WEST COAST. AN
AREA OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO MEXICO. THIS APPEARS TO BE PULLED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS COULD SPELL MORE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAST CEILINGS WILL CLEAR ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LBF TO VTN. THINKING IS BY NOONTIME
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BUT COULD
LINGER A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
AT 10-20 KTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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