336
FXUS63 KLBF 170549
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1249 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE, CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON. A TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE TO APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES WEST OF LOS ANGELES
CA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE AND UPSTREAM OF THE HIGH, BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CALIFORNIA, NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITHIN THIS FLOW, NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS, NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO,
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FEATURE
THEN EXTENDED TO THE EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NORTH OF
THE FRONT, A BROAD SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDED FROM THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61, SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM
CDT RANGED FROM 60 DEGREES AT O'NEILL, AINSWORTH AND BROKEN BOW,
TO 73 DEGREES AT GORDON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON WILL DRIFT
EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ONLY COVERING 200 TO 300 MILES. BY
00Z FRIDAY THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND EC SOLN HAVE THIS FEATURE
ROUGHLY OVER NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WILL RETROGRADE WEST FROM THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO ARKANSAS. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW LEAD DISTURBANCES TO LIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO
COLORADO, EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE FROM NORTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE FROM FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTHEAST INTO CUSTER COUNTY AND
THE EASTERN SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION, LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLNS, THERE
IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL, TO THEDFORD, TO AINSWORTH. THAT BEING
SAID, WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG IN THESE AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT AND THE THREAT FOR CLOUD COVER, DO
NOT THINK DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE ATTM. ON THURSDAY, A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. HOW FAR NORTH
THIS GETS ON THURSDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR SOMEWHAT, HOWEVER
THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NAM12, GFS AND EC SOLNS THIS MORNING HAS
TIGHTENED SOME FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST WITH YESTERDAYS MODELS. AS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN FORECAST SOLNS, THIS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MAKE IT TO INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LEAD TO A WIDE VARIATION IN HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 70S NORTH OF THE FRONT, WHILE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MID TO UPPER 80S APPEAR PROBABLE. LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS
NORTH NORTHEAST, A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE NBM 6HR QPF PROBABILITIES ENDING
AT 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 50 TO NEAR 100% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.10" OF QPF WEST OF A LINE FROM BIG SPRINGS, TO
MULLEN, TO SPRINGVIEW. WHEN THIS THRESHOLD IS INCREASED TO
0.75", THERE IS STILL A 40 TO 50% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE FROM
GARDEN COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO CHERRY COUNTY. THAT BEING SAID,
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE NBM FORECAST APPEAR ON TRACK. WITH
RESPECT TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, THE INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO BE
THERE. FORECAST PWATS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75" THURSDAY
AFTERNOON PER THE NAM12 AND ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH THE GFS.
THESE PWAT'S ARE 0.25 TO 0.50" ABOVE THE MAX CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID
SEPTEMBER!. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, THE EC SOT AND EFI
FORECAST ARE LEANING TOWARD A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA WITH EFI'S OF
0.6 TO 0.8 IN THE FORECAST AREA AND A SOT AROUND 1. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE, THERE WAS A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THIS MAXIMUM
SOT AND EFI AREA IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY'S RUNS. SO IN
EFFECT, THE EC EFI AND SOT FORECAST HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH
WITH ITS HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. ATTM, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO MODEL CHOICE. THE NAM SOLN DROPS THIS
BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKE THURSDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE FA AND WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL POSITION. BASED ON A COMPROMISE IN
FRONTAL POSITION-IE. EC SOLN, UTILIZED THE NBM FOR HIGHS FRIDAY
WHICH TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ACCELERATE EAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, REACHING EASTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ATTM, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEYOND SUNDAY, A SECOND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A MINOR THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
AREAS OF IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THESE WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ025>029-
037-038-059-070-071.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BROWN
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