533
FXUS63 KLBF 171143
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS
IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COOL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
CURRENTLY, CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. FURTHER NORTH, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY, WITH THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUGGEST SOME THREAT FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL,
WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS, WITH PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA FINALLY WARMING AS CLOUDS CLEAR AFTER NOON CDT.
EAST OF HWY 83, CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS
HERE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTH
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR LIKELY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO
MID-AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR NOW, AND WILL HAVE DRASTIC
IMPACTS ON THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTIONS
LIFT THIS TOWARDS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND SUGGEST
CONCERNING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. THAT SAID, OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT DO DEVELOP ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, THEY DO SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS, LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE. ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY WOULD FEASIBLY POSE A RISK
FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS VERY LOW.
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THIS.
ANOTHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INCREASES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES, WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1.75-2.0", OR NEAR CLIMO MAXIMUMS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND LONG, SKINNY
CAPE, FURTHER SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2"+ IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3" CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTION
TRAINS. THOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING UNSETTLED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. SATURDAY,
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AND BE ENTERING WESTERN WYOMING BY LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE,
A RATHER MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
INITIALLY, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN
THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE EASTWARD
ACROSS WYOMING. FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM UPPER-JET DYNAMICS WILL AID IN
ASCENT INCREASING ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE LOOKS LOW, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
MATERIALIZE. PWATS GREATER THAN 1.3" WILL BE IN PLACE AS MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE LOW.
SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW. THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND FILLS AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST. AN AREA OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO MEXICO. THIS APPEARS TO BE PULLED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
AREAS OF IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THESE WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT
10-20 KTS BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ007-009-010-025>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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