482
FXUS63 KLBF 180518
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
SANDHILLS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND GFS SOLNS HAVE FAILED TO
INITIALIZE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE HRRR HAS TRENDED TOWARD MORE
"REALITY" WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS FINALLY SHOWING THE
ONGOING PCPN IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GOING FORWARD THIS
EVENING, THERE ARE TWO AREAS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST AREA IS INVOF THE WARM FRONT JUST OFF
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR SOLN HAS THIS
FEATURE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM GRANT TO NEAR MCCOOK AT 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SOUTH OF THE FRONT, READINGS WERE WELL
INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS PUSHED SB CAPES TO
1500 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SHEAR, ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER WESTERN KANSAS REMAINS
WEAK THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE YOU APPROACH THE FRONT, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR APPROACHES 30 KTS AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY (IE. 100 M2S2 IN THE 0-1KM AGL LAYER). IF STORMS
CAN FORM, AND THAT'S IF...THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS INVOF THE FRONT. THIS AREA WILL NEED SOME CLOSE
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. THE OTHER AREA THAT HAS A
REALLY GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IS OVER THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. AS
THIS FEATURE LIFTS INTO NORTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND
EASTERN WYOMING OVERNIGHT, THE MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SHIELD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO NW NEBRASKA.
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA, THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLES HAVE A 70 TO 100
PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO SPRINGVIEW. WHEN THAT
THRESHOLD IS RAISED TO 0.50 INCHES THE PROBABILITIES ONLY FALL
OFF TO 60 TO 90 PERCENT. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS
RISK IS SUPPORTED BY VERY HIGH FORECAST PWATS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LATEST NAM SOLN HAS PWATS AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON OF 1.55" FOR
LBF. OUR 18Z RAOB CAME IN WITH 1.80". THIS MARK IS WELL ABOVE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THE 2ND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ALSO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS TONIGHT HAVE A
NICE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. AS FOR A FLASH FLOODING RISK. BASED ON
THE LOCATION OF LOWEST FFG, THE RISK IS GREATEST OVER THE PINE
RIDGE OF NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
GARDEN AND DEUEL COUNTIES. THREE HR FFG IN THESE AREAS ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.25 INCHES. THIS GUIDANCE QUICKLY
RISES INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE 3 HR FFG
IS WELL OVER 4 INCHES. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST FEW MONTHS IN THE PANHANDLE, AND WITH THE LATEST HI
RES SOLNS HAVING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN
GARDEN COUNTY, NORTHEAST TO WELL EAST OF THE PINE RIDGE OVER NW
CHERRY COUNTY, WILL FORGO A FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
IN THE WAKE OF EXITING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING, A MOISTURE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SW NEBRASKA INTO NE NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE WEST OF THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA WHERE EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM NE COLORADO INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA, INITIATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL CARRY THIS ACTIVITY
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM SW INTO NE
NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE CHANCE POPS, ALTHOUGH FORECAST QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT
BEST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WESTERN, THEN
CENTRAL WYOMING BY 12Z SUNDAY. A LEAD DISTURBANCE, WILL LEAD TO
A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ATTM THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS ACROSS WESTERN INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MIGRATE FROM CENTRAL WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, A SECOND LOW AND TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT, WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH A
RETURN TO 70S MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA, WITH ALL STORMS ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE
FRIDAY. THAT SAID, LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES PERSISTING. A BRIEF RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
LOW STRATUS AGAIN BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS THEN CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AT 5 TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROWN
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