059
FXUS63 KLBF 181714
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
- COOLER HIGHS, MAINLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BRIEFLY STRONGER STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL, WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING CLEARING SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA PLAGUED
BY PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THE PAST FEW DAYS. A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED
AS WELL, WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 90S IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. QUIET WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL LINGER FOR THOSE NEAR AND EAST
OF HWY 83 TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.
BY THIS EVENING, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY CLUSTERING
AS IT DOES. THIS COULD BRING SOME THREAT FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
WITH DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. THIS
CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH PWAT VALUES
AGAIN EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND
LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1" ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARDS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO PIVOT NORTHEAST WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT AND ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN EASTERLY, AND
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY, THOUGH STILL
HOVERING ~1". SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RETURN
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW FOR
NOW. SOME THREAT FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL, AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SUNDAY MORNING, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY POPS IN SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
LATE SUNDAY EVENING, THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NBM PROBABILITY OF GREATER
THAN 0.25 INCH ENDING 12Z MONDAY IS FROM 60 TO OVER 90 PERCENT FOR
AREAS WEST OF IMPERIAL THROUGH VALENTINE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE
COOLER FROM THE LOW 60S MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NEAR 70
FAR SOUTHWEST. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL FAVOR LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM NERN NE/SERN SD INTO IOWA. LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TOPS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL, MAINLY IN THE 60S,
WARMING TO 65 TO 75 WEDNESDAY AND THE 70S THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY 04Z WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SHOWERS COME TO AN END BY 09Z
GIVING WAY TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1 MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
BEFORE FOG DISSIPATES BY LATE MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...KULIK
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