243
FXUS63 KLBF 191131
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
- A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY, AND THEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. STRATUS WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG NORTH CENTRAL.
STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE PERSISTING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, EXCEPT NEAR 75 FAR
SOUTHWEST. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE A DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE FROM NCTRL
CO AND SERN WY INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING
CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFT
THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NE TONIGHT, LIKELY POPS
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING, WITH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE 00Z LBF
SOUNDING SHOWING AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT OF 1.64 INCHES, SOME
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY EVENING WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. SOME THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
SUNDAY, THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
WYOMING AT 12Z. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
FAVOR LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ON SUNDAY. WITH SOUNDINGS FAIRLY
SATURATED, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THEREFORE POPS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NE. THE UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. SBCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 500-750 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR 35-40KTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE LOW-TOPPED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NE, WITH
A SLIGHT RISK IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHASE
COUNTY. LIKELY POPS IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD
INTO SOUTHWEST MN. NBM PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.25 INCH
ENDING 12Z MONDAY IS FROM 60 TO OVER 90 PERCENT FOR AREAS WEST
OF OGALLALA THROUGH BUTTE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FROM THE
LOW 60S MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO UPPER 60S
FAR SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND FILLING MONDAY. STILL
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL BACK A
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER MONDAY HELPING TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, HIGHS MONDAY MAY STRUGGLE OUT OF
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF PAUSE IN RAIN CHANCES. IT
REMAINS COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. STILL
RATHER COOL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DESPITE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BE RECYCLED BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME, SO NO BIG WARM UP IS IN THE OFFING.
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE THEN APPEARS IT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS AND MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KVTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KLBF AND KVTN. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION
AND TIMING IS BELOW AVERAGE AND WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
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