673
FXUS63 KLBF 192020
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
- WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CANNOT RULE OUT A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
HIGHS IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS WYOMING TODAY, WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDED TO THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO WYOMING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW, AND WILL ACT AS THE CATALYST FOR OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BY THIS EVENING, EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ROUGHLY INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PINE
RIDGE AND EXPANDING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED LINE. AS
THIS TRACKS EAST, EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL, CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS STRATUS LINGERED
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, DAYTIME HEATING
HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN FACT, AS OF 2 PM CDT, HIGHS HAVE
ONLY BREACHED THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A QUICK EXAMINATION OF THE KLBF SOUNDING
REVEALS THAT MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, WITH PWAT
VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY, WHICH MOSTLY REMAINS ALOFT. THERE IS
SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER, IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT BUILD
UP OF HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
ALIGNING WHERE THE STRATUS DECK HAS CLEARED OUT. WITH THIS NARROW
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW,
MAY SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. OUR
MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY
TRACK INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, AS THEY BEGIN
TO ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, EXPECTING THAT STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY. AS THESE CELLS BEGIN COLLAPSING,
EXPECTING THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A VERY BRIEF THREAT FOR HAIL AS WELL.
BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECTING THAT STORMS WILL
MOSTLY CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE, THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALLS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. IN FACT, WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT
VALUES, MAY EVEN SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR
AREAS AROUND PINE RIDGE, WITH A MARGINAL RISK REMAINING WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83.
WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AGAIN EXPECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT,
SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, REMAINING IN CLOSER VICINITY
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE ENTIRE REGION IS COVERED BY A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK REMAINING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. AS FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
RISK, THOUGH PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE CURRENTLY
COVERED BY A MARGINAL RISK, THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY
CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER OR NOT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND COOLER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, EXPECTING ANY INSTABILITY
THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY LIMITED. HOWEVER, IF SOME
GREATER INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SHOWERS LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED, WITH LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THERE IS EVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. POTENTIALLY RAINY
CONDITIONS EARLY MORNING MONDAY COMBINED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
MAY BRING A MORE FALL-LIKE FEEL TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION, WILL STILL SEE THE
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL HELP PULL A COOLER AIR MASS SOUTH FROM CANADA, KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TO START THE WEEK. BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY, MAY SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST, WITH HIGHS PUSHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS MENTIONED, THIS IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
THIS IS TYPICALLY THE WEEK WHEN WE SEE AVERAGE HIGHS DROPPING FROM
AROUND 78 TO 75 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS,
AS WELL. IN FACT, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
OF THE REGION, WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION
BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECTING TO SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. AS THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, MAY STILL SEE SOME CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW, EXPECTING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS,
WHICH AGAIN, WOULD BE AROUND THE MID 70S. HOWEVER, IF A STRONGER
RIDGE CAN DEVELOP, MAY SEE HIGHS PUSH JUST A TAD WARMER INTO THE
UPPER 70S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CONSENSUS THAT PROBABILITIES
OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES REMAINS LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE TO END
THE WEEK, SO EVEN IF WE DO GET ABOVE SEASONAL, EXPECT IT WOULD BE
VERY SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, MAINTAINING MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, WHERE VFR CONDITIONS MAY
PREVAIL, POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR A FEW
HOURS. BY THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS,
DRIVEN BY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DURING PERIODS OF
RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
THE MORNING AND POTENTIALLY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...RICHIE
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