186
FXUS63 KLBF 200612
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
112 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
- STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT SETTLES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE
BY WEEK'S END.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
WYOMING AT 12Z THIS MORNING. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NE THIS MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OVER THE WY/NE/SD BORDER AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ON
SUNDAY. WITH SOUNDINGS FAIRLY SATURATED, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GENERATE AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE POPS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL ALSO PROVIDE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SBCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 500-750 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40KTS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE LOW-
TOPPED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE PANHANDLE AROUND NOON CDT AND MOVING EAST AS AN ARCING LINE
EASTWARD TO NEAR HIGHWAY 83 BY 4 PM CDT. HAIL AND STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE AN INITIAL THREAT WITH STORM CLUSTERS
IN THE FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS, TRANSITIONING TO A WIND THREAT
FURTHER EAST AS A LINE DEVELOP. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NE. LIKELY POPS IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD
INTO SOUTHWEST MN. NBM PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.25 INCH
ENDING 12Z MONDAY IS FROM 60 TO OVER 90 PERCENT FOR AREAS WEST
OF OGALLALA THROUGH BUTTE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA, SOUTHERN MN, NORTHERN NE AND IOWA. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
NORTH CENTRAL NE, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES
CONTINUE TO LOOK OVERCAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NE WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN SOUTHWEST. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CENTRAL SANDHILLS INTO CENTRAL
NE. CLOUDY AND COOL WITH LOWS 44 TO 50.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING A BRIEF PAUSE IN RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
STILL RATHER COOL WEDNESDAY DESPITE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER DRY
WITH THE ORIGINS FROM CANADA, BUT SOME GULF MOISTURE MAY TRY AND MIX
IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS
TURNS NORTHWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MOST ENS MEMBERS
AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF THEN BUILD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE
70S AS THIS OCCURS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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