625
FXUS63 KLBF 202353
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
653 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
INCREASING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AND
TRACKS ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS IT PUSHES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE RISK
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS, SOME ISOLATED STRONGER TO BRIEFLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HERE, SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO NEBRASKA WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 7 C/KM. MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH, A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS SETTLED
INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT BAY,
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONGER
STORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 55 MPH.
THE SEVERE RISK WILL COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. THIS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME,
ANTICIPATING FOG TO REMAIN PATCHY, BUT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO
NEAR 1 MILE AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE LATEST PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
SEEING LESS THAN 1 MILE IS NEAR 20 PERCENT AT TIMES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS. THEREFORE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS IF
TRAVELING MONDAY MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT, BUT
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SOME LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE STORMS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
DUE TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES, CLOUDY CONDITIONS, AND INCREASED COLD
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO TAKE A
SLIGHT DIP DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S (NORTHWEST NE) TO LOW 50S (INTO
CENTRAL NE) BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE STRONGEST POSITIVE 500-MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
MAINTAIN COOLER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN-STREAM FLOW IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED, ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
AS A RESULT, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT APPEARS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO REACH 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND NEAR THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A RELATIVELY STRONG 250-300 MB SOUTHERN-STREAM JET STREAK WILL
ALSO APPROACH THE REGION, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND
INCREASING FORCING COULD SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS PERIOD MAY
REPRESENT THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING.
THURSDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-
STREAM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD MAINTAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
PLACE, SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM,
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION COULD PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN
LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBUILD
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUALLY DECREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
RIDGE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY AMPLIFIED AT THIS TIME, SO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LOWER CEILINGS WILL AGAIN SPREAD SOUTHWEST AND COVER MOST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IFR IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA, BUT COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS WELL. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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