780
FXUS63 KLBF 210659
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
159 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT SETTLES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE
BY WEEK'S END.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY INTO
EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS LOOKING MORE WET. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME
MODERATION APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SD
AT 12Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MORNING
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NE, BECOMING ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 SOUTHWEST, WHERE CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE HIGHER AND SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BY 12Z TUESDAY, AN UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS WY AND CO WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT 45 TO 50.
TUESDAY, ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH PATCHY FOG UNTIL MID MORNING. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS TO
SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEST IN THE MORNING, AND
CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WY AND
CO AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON, WITH A BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS 48 TO 55.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO
THE EAST AND THE DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS FLOW WILL HELP
DRAW MORE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
ENS MEAN PWATS CLIMB TO ABOVE 1.4" TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
NEAR THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE POSITION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS, AS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS THIS OCCURS, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCHING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
THEN ATTEMPTS TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND,
WHICH WOULD BRING DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SOME
MODERATION COULD OCCUR AS THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
LOWER CEILINGS WILL AGAIN SPREAD SOUTHWEST AND COVER MOST OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, BUT COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AS WELL. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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