562
FXUS63 KLBF 220507
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MULTIPLE
SHOTS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY STRETCHING AS FAR AS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH PATCHY FOG LARGELY DISSIPATED, THE LOW
STRATUS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST, MID LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS WRAPPED AROUND IT AND BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING TO GIVE WAY TO
DRY CONDITIONS. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS, PATCHY
FOG SHOULD BLANKET THE NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEY AND SPREAD OUT
SOUTHWARD, POTENTIALLY AS FAR TO I-80. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE BEYOND
PATCHY CONDITIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY MORNING, THE PATCHY FOG SHOULD REMAINS UNTIL MID MORNING.
MID-LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WEAK LIFT TO SUPPORT LOW END
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS CLIMBING UP TO A RANGE OF 30 -
35 MPH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL HELP BRING SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 1.4" EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS WOULD PUT
US ABOVE THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE AND POTENTIALLY BREAK A
DAILY HIGH RECORD. A 500MB JET MAXIMUM WILL BE SET UP ALONG THE
NE/KS BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE JET MAX AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINES UP WITH GREATLY
INFLUENCE WHAT LOCATIONS SEE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS IT STANDS NOW, THAT PRECIPITATION
CORRIDOR STRETCHES ON A LINE SOUTHEAST FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BUTTE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH POTENTIALLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
SUCH HIGH MOISTURE COMING IN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TO GO ALONG WITH THIS SENTIMENT, WPC HAS A MARGINAL
DAY 3 ERO (EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK) OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, DID WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH A CORRIDOR OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE ALONG SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY POTENTIAL CHANGES TO TRENDS. A SECOND
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
CENTRAL IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
WHERE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES INTO THE REGION, PROVIDING
BETTER LIFT.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AS WELL AS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH DAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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