752
FXUS63 KLBF 221125
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL MID MORNING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TODAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- A WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TODAY, ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG UNTIL MID
MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK LIFT IN THE
MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MORNING, AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE LOW 60S MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NE, WHILE THE FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD
REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WY AND CO
AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. A BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS 48 TO 55.
WEDNESDAY, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF BAJA MEXICO WITH A
RATHER STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO IOWA CONNECTING WITH A BLOCK
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
WILL WORK TOGETHER TO BRING A STRONG TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM CHIHUAHUA MEXICO THROUGH SWRN TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, WESTERN KANSAS INTO
NEBRASKA. SOME OF THE MODELS BRING PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
INTO SWRN NEBRASKA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE DAILY MAX
PWAT FOR SEPT. 23RD IS 1.38 INCHES, SO THE DAILY RECORD IS
POSSIBLE. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST, WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SOUTHWEST AND EAST. ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. THE GFS AND ECMWF, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ALL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. NBM 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING A HALF INCH ENDING 12Z THURSDAY IS FROM 40 TO 66
PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH DETAILS FOUND IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DRAW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. ENS MEAN PWATS CLIMB TO ABOVE 1.5" TO THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THIS, COMBINED WITH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE, WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
THE LOW. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEBRASKA
KANSAS BORDER OR SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH NEARER I-80. AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHEN THURSDAY EVENING, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. AS
MENTIONED, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OF CONCERN. FROM FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH
SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS APPEAR TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. RIDGING ALOFT THEN ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD
BRING DRIER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURE MODERATION
OCCURS AS THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLBF AND KVTN.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KVTN AFTER 17Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLBF TODAY, AND MAY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
23Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BOTH TAF SITES
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
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