538
FXUS63 KLBF 222031
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE LINE UP WILL GREATLY IMPACT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT AS IT STANDS, HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO O'NEILL.
- WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL THE MID EVENING AS 700MB AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTLES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT. AS THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE SATURATED. THIS COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG AND MIST TO SETTLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
DOWN TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA MEXICO AND A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL TAP INTO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE,
BRINGING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO WESTERN KS/NE. THIS HAS
BROUGHT ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS INTO THE REGION WITH THEM
CONSISTENTLY BEING IN THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE. THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF A 500MB JET MAXIMUM IS FORECASTED TO BE RIGHT
ALONG THE WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NE BORDER. THIS COMBINED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH WITH
CAPE VALUES REMAINING LOW, SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. STORMS HOWEVER ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS, WHICH COULD CREATE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED AS WELL FROM WPC WHERE
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS.
THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
DETAILS FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AS NOTED ABOVE, WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUFFICIENT SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND START TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW. THERE STILL IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR THIS BOUNDARY SETTLE BEYOND THE KS/NE
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A
MAJOR FACTOR IN WHICH AREAS SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS IT
STANDS NOW, AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO O'NEILL COULD SEE
AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 1.0 TO 1.5". LREF PROBABILITIES GIVES AT 40 TO 60
PERCENT OF THIS AREA SEEING UPWARDS OF AN INCH WHERE AS FURTHER INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA STILL HOLDS PROBABILITIES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHING 1.5". THIS COULD COME IN THE FORM OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL BRING SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ALONG WITH A ONLY MODEST SHEAR,
WHAT THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM, ARE NOT LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT
THIS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GREATLY DECREASE IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES PAST FRIDAY, IT WILL BRING IN
THE ATTEMPT FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER, DRYER
AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL INCREASE BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SOME
MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 5 MILES AS TIMES IN RAIN
SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AT 1000 FEET OR
BELOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG AT BAY, BUT
SOME LIGHT FOG OR MIST COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CEILINGS DROP TO 500 FEET OR LESS. CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH LATE MORNING, BUT REMAIN UNDER 2000 FEET INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...KULIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page