486
FXUS63 KLBF 151122
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-PERIODS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
AT LEAST WETTING RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
-THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES INCREASES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL TO 28°F OR COLDER.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO DRIER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A RELATIVELY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS, WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, A DEFORMATION
BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
THIS REGION OF ENHANCED DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE ASCENT
MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, CURRENT WATER-VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE DRY SLOT
ADVANCING INTO THE REGION, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A QUICKER REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE 00Z
HREF FAVORING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST AND EAST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH
REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE
DEFORMATION BAND MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES.
OVERALL, THE TREND TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE DRY SLOT HAS RESULTED
IN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE
AREA, THOUGH WETTING RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE.
ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION, THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE
REGION, ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING, WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE POST-FRONTAL
WINDS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MIXED LAYER EXTENDING TO AROUND 1 KM AGL, WITH
PEAK WIND SPEEDS WITHIN THIS LAYER GENERALLY NEAR 40 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTY CONDITIONS, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE AVAILABLE WINDS WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD GUSTS REACHING HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ESTABLISH A CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AIR MASS, WITH 850-MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -3 TO -
7°C RANGE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES, WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SUPPORTING MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. FARTHER EAST, A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS, LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE COLDER
AIR MASS. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61, WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 28°F OR COLDER IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. FARTHER
EAST, TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST
REMAINS LOWER. LINGERING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT, EVEN
WHERE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR FALL BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES, ADDITIONAL COLD-WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HELD OFF
FOR NOW, THOUGH AN UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING AND THE ISSUANCE OF A
FROST ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES, LINGERING NORTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REPRESENT A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF MILD TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FROST AND FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS OCCURRING RELATIVELY LATE COMPARED
TO WHAT IS TYPICALLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEDIAN DATE OF
THE FIRST FROST IS AROUND SEPTEMBER 21, FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST FREEZE
AROUND SEPTEMBER 29 AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE, DEFINED AS
TEMPERATURES OF 28°F OR COLDER, AROUND OCTOBER 10. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S, THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND THE LINGERING COOL AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER
FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT FROST WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARBY AND WINDS WEAKEN
FURTHER. ADDITIONAL FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING
FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY RISE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON SATURDAY INTO THE 70S
BY TUESDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL EASILY BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RISE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY LOWS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AGAIN THESE LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMALS
(NORMAL IN THE MID 30S). THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH, SO NOTHING MORE
THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) ARE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER 18Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY, GRADUALLY IMPROVING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DEPARTING RAIN, STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKIES CLEAR AFTER SUNSET
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058-069-094.
SHORT TERM...LABENZ
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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