271
FXUS63 KLBF 152350
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
650 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT, WITH A FREEZE WATCH
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT.
- ALONG WITH THE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING IN TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
- BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS RETURN TO A WARMER, DRYER
PATTERN, WHICH LASTS INTO NEXT WEEK. SEASONAL TO ABOVE
SEASONAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE SEASONAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF IT. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, PUSHING THROUGH BY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE LAST REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS ARE TRACKING OUT OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THEIR WAKE. THIS EVENING, AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, A
COLD, DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS POOLS ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING A RISK
FOR OUR FIRST FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON. WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE EXITING LOW, EXPECTING THAT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN QUITE GUSTY
THIS EVENING, WHICH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY DROPPING
OFF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING, SO DO ANTICIPATE THIS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL
SEASON SO FAR (TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER). COLDEST
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61, WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES, POTENTIALLY
REACHING A HARD FREEZE (28 DEGREES OR COOLER). HOWEVER, MOST AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 32 DEGREES, IF ONLY
BRIEFLY, OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND, WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED OUR
EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING. SHOULD NOTE THAT EVEN AREAS
OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WARNING WILL GET COLD TONIGHT, WITH LOWS ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
AS THESE COLD TEMPERATURES SET IN OVERNIGHT, THE WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL HAVE A BIT OF A BITE TO THEM. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ARE NOW EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT UNUSUAL
FOR OCTOBER, THE FACT THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY LATE FIRST FROST/FREEZE
MAY CATCH SOME FOLKS A BIT OFF GUARD. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANTS,
PIPES, IRRIGATION, AND PETS MAY WANT TO TAKE PRECAUTION TONIGHT, IF
THEY HAVE NOT DONE SO ALREADY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THESE COLDER
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING, FOLKS MAY WANT TO MAKE SURE TO HAVE WARM
CLOTHING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL. OUR RECENT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, AS WE TYPICALLY SEE LOWS AROUND 31 TO 33 DEGREES
FOR MID OCTOBER.
WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ON FRIDAY, CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
EXPECTING SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE EVENING. THIS WILL SET
UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUFFICIENT SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF COLDER WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
FROST ACROSS THE REGION, NOT TO MENTION FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER FREEZE
WATCH THIS SHIFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES
TO A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AFTER THE COLD START SATURDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WARM
AGAIN, WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL TO ABOVE SEASONAL HIGHS AND WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN, BUILDING IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TO THE LOWER 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. WITH THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OUT WEST, WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO USHER IN NEAR CRITICAL HUMIDITY
VALUES. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP WITH GUSTY WINDS TO CAUSE A
FEW HOURS OF CONCERN, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECTING WARMER, BUT STILL COOL, OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECTING MOSTLY WARMER, DRYER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY AND EARLY IN THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
FOR REFERENCE, TYPICAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 62 TO 64
DEGREES, WITH TYPICAL OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 31 TO 33 DEGREES. AS RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD ON TUESDAY, WE MAY SEE EVEN WARMER HIGHS,
POTENTIALLY PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RETURN TO THE 50S. GUIDANCE STILL
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MID TO LATE
WEEK, WHICH MAY BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND TIMING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR AREA TERMINALS UNTIL
INCREASINGLY LOW STRATUS BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS
APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NORTH
WINDS CONTINUE. SPEEDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE
MORNING, WITH GUSTS LARGELY SUBSIDING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SKIES CLEAR.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058-069-094.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-071.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...NMJ
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