389
FXUS63 KLBF 160833
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BACK TO BACK COLD MORNINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHEN FREEZE
WARNINGS AND FREEZE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT, SHOULD LEAD TO AN
END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR ALL OF WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS ON SATURDAY, FAVORING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WERE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS LED TO A FAIRLY QUICK INFLUX OF DRY AIR WHICH HELPED
TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. BY
1AM CDT, MANY LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY IN THE 30S. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WAS AREAS BENEATH AN INCREASING PLUME OF LOW/MID-LEVEL STRATUS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA, DO ANTICIPATE ENOUGH
BREAKS FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S
FURTHER WEST IN THE PANHANDLE WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
TODAY/TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY
THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY, WITH GRADUAL DECREASES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH
APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IF NOT UPPER 40S FOR A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH SUNNY SKIES AND AS ALLUDED TO,
WITH WEAKENING WINDS FALLING TO LESS THAN 20 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY TO LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS BY
EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS CENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
THROUGH THE AREA WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPING. THIS CASTS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. THOUGH TIMING OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA
FAVORS NEAR TO PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT VERSUS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE
ANTICIPATED LIGHT WINDS BENEATH CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE COLDEST MORNING TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR, PAINTING EXPANSIVE 20S AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS
MAKING A RUN AT UPPER TEENS IN OUR FAR WEST. THIS, FOLLOWING THE
ANTICIPATED COLD FROM FRIDAY MORNING, SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE
GROWING SEASON IN THE LOCAL AREA. ALL NON-WARNED ZONES FROM FRIDAY
MORNING HAVE A FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
HEADLINE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED PRODUCTS. SHOULD TIMING FAVOR A QUICKER DEPARTURE AND THUS
QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN OUR WEST,
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED ALTERED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING UPSTREAM WILL SHUFFLE EAST
TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
EMBEDDED TROUGHING STALLS NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. FLOW ALOFT
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THOUGH THIS WILL OCCUR TOO LATE
TO ALLOW MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
RESULT IS WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITHIN A DRY AIRMASS. IN FACT, SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. WHILE LOW
HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED, HOW MUCH WIND OVERLAP
MATERIALIZES REMAINS IN QUESTION. FLOW ALOFT APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK,
PARTICULARLY AT H7, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS AS A
RESULT. THOUGH H85 FLOW APPEARS RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY,
THE SPEED MAX AT THIS LEVEL SHOULD FOCUS OVER HIGHWAY 83 WHEREAS THE
LOWEST HUMIDITY SHOULD BE BOTTLED UP IN THE PANHANDLE. HREF JOINT
PROBABILITIES SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (80%+) OF MARGINAL FIRE
CONDITIONS (< 35% RH, > 10 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS) BUT THESE LARGELY
FALL OFF TO 50-60% FOR SEEING NEAR-CRITICAL (< 20% RH, > 15 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS). THE ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE ZONES 204/210 AND
WESTERN ZONES 206/208. RAW OUTPUT FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION ARW
SUGGESTS THIS IS A THREAT WORTH MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MIDDLE 70S WEST TO LOW 60S EAST.
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE SPEED MAX OFF THE SURFACE, BELIEVE GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. THE GUSTIER WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON THE MILDER SIDE. THOUGH SOME 30S APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AREAS OF NORTHERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD HOLD INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, WITH UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION
TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN, WITH THE CENTRAL US POSITIONED
BETWEEN A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN US AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS LEAVES THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AND LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE
70S FOR ALL BY TUESDAY (70S EXPECTED SAT/SUN ACROSS WESTERN NE).
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE LOWER 80S
BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS, THOUGH
FIRE CONCERNS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S. THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
ELEVATED IN THE 30-40% RANGE, ALONG WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING
BELOW 20 MILES PER HOUR EACH DAY. IN ALL, THIS POINTS TO A RETURN OF
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY, AND MILD CONDITIONS
RETURNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY LATE WEEK, THE WESTERN US UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND THIS DRAGS A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BRING A RETURN
OF COOLER HIGHS AND SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS NEAR AND EAST
OF HWY 83 FRIDAY MORNING, LEADING TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY FOR ALL
TERMINALS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AT 5KTS
OR LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ004-022-023-
035-056>058-069-094.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-071.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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