690
FXUS63 KLBF 162354
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
654 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR A
LARGE PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
83.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS RANGING IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- SHOWER CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH
LATER THIS EVENING, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS BENEATH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING. WENT COLDER USING
THE BCCONSSHORT, FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST, WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NE. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT, SOME GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NE WHERE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO THE LOWER 30S. MOST
OF THE 12Z MOS GUIDANCE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT EVEN COLDER IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NE AREAS. A FREEZE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NEAR AND EASTS
OF HIGHWAY 83. THE COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE
GROWING SEASON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A
NOTABLE WARMUP ON SATURDAY TO 70 TO 75 ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS TO LOWER 60S CENTRAL NE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
FROM 15 TO 30 MPH NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. WHILE LOW HUMIDITY FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT IS LIKELY
TO BE OBSERVED, HOW MUCH WIND OVERLAP MATERIALIZES ACROSS THE
WEST REMAINS IN QUESTION. FLOW ALOFT APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK, WHICH
WILL LIKELY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS AS A RESULT. THE GUSTIER WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILDER SIDE. THOUGH SOME MID 30S ARE
LIKELY IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS, NORTHERN NEBRASKA SHOULD HOLD IN
THE LOW 40S.
SUNDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH
SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
EARLY TO MID WEEK, UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A CLOSED LOW OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WEAK DISTURBANCES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS DRY. HIGHS IN THE
60S MONDAY WARM INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY
EVENING, AND THIS DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE
COLD FRONT INTERACTS WILL SOME INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREAFTER,
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS
NEARING 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ005>010-024>029-035>038-057>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...NMJ
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