061
FXUS63 KLBF 181121
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAINED STEADY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS HAVE REMAINED THE
STRONGEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN MILDER TEMPERATURES LINGERING FOR THESE AREAS. WHERE
WINDS HAVE MANAGED TO DIMINISH MORE, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN MORE
EFFECTIVELY AND ARE LIKELY TO SETTLE INTO THE 30S WITH ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS HOLDING INTO THE 40S.
TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS BY LATE MORNING AND STALL NEAR A KIML TO KANW LINE AROUND
MIDDAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH TO THE EAST AND WEST OF
THIS WIND SHIFT LINE RESPECTIVELY. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY
AND THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
RECENT NBM PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR REGARDING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH BETTER PERFORMANCE FROM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
LEANED HEAVILY ON MET GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WARMER MAV
SOLUTION. THIS PRODUCED UPPER 60S IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
70S TO NEAR 80F INVOF THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. THE
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM 5-15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE OCTOBER.
WINDS WILL FALL OFF TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS AND SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ONCE AGAIN. THESE REMAIN
AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING LEE TROUGHING. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY TO LARGELY
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT WILL SERVE NO OTHER PURPOSE OTHER THAN TO KEEP HUMIDITY
SAFELY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. DEEP TROUGHING WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT STAGNANT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LACK OF
ANY APPRECIABLE PERTURBATION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
MODERATE BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MIDWEEK. IN FACT, WIDESPREAD
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OR 20
TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER. NORMALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR, TEMPERATURES THIS WARM COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WOULD
LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THAT SAID, MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION BOOSTS DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK,
AND THIS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY ELEVATED TO 35-45% EACH AFTERNOON. FIRE
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LOW DUE TO THIS, THOUGH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MILES PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONGER WINDS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES, AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT, AND AS A CONSEQUENCE LIMITS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFY, LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT. SOME THREAT FOR DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BEHIND THE
FRONT, THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO SUGGEST THIS WILL LARGELY
STAY OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACK. THAT SAID, SOME PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
NOW, AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
AREAS EAST OF HWY 83. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 15KTS. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT,
AT 5KTS OR LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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