233
FXUS63 KLBF 190828
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER, NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS IN THE 60S IN ITS
WAKE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE LIFTING NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. THE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WHILE MOST LOCATIONS HOLD INTO THE LOW
40S.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED AS DEEP
TROUGHING DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LARGELY FOCUSED ON RESULTANT
DCVA AND MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF
THE LOCAL AREA. WITH RECENT NWP PERFORMANCE ON DAYTIME HIGHS, OPTED
TO GO AGGRESSIVE SINCE NBM DETERMINISTIC VALUES OFTEN WERE TOO COOL.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S TO NEAR 70F WHICH
CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH MET/MAV GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS, AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE CONCERNS. LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE SOUTH AT OR BELOW 10 MPH.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SETTLE OFF THE WEST COAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL AGAIN CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PASS WESTERN
NEBRASKA/KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW BUT SOME NON-ZERO POPS (< 10%) HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS ALIGNS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK WAA FROM A DEVELOPING LLJ. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH EVEN THE MOST BULLISH
GUIDANCE ON QPF PAINTS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. DAYTIME
HIGHS WERE BOOSTED FURTHER WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING SET TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE WEST. LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD AS THE LLJ SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50F IN THE EAST TO
MIDDLE 40S IN THE WEST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY, WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY, AND INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20 - 30 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO GET SQUISHED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
WITH H850 TEMPS BEING 20 TO 23C ACROSS WESTERN TO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS TRANSLATES TO DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAVING A LOW-END
(10 - 20 PERCENT) BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE CHANCE OF REACHING 80. THIS
WOULD PUT HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE
SEASON. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25
MPH, WITH STRONGEST GUSTS BEING EAST OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO
VALENTINE. THESE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30 - 40 MPH RANGE
BUT THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS BEING IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH. LUCKILY, MARGINAL HUMIDITIES (35 - 50 PERCENT) WILL
OVERLAP WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, SO FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO A
STREAM OF MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY UP FROM THE GULF, BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. EVEN WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST WITH NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVING A 20 - 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS, WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OUT OF OUR AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, WHICH WOULD BE ON PAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING, GENERALLY AT 5KTS OR
LESS. WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AT 5 TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...BROWN
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