679
FXUS63 KLBF 200826
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA POTENTIALLY SEEING LOW 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST, LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. SECOND, A
POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THIS MORNING, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION, WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
ALONG A CURTIS-NORTH PLATTE-THEDFORD LINE AND POINTS WEST. LOOKING
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE WITHIN THE LOWEST 50
TO 100 MB, ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS, FURTHER
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE FOG, THOUGH ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING
PROMOTES BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. GIVEN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THIS WILL
ALLOW 850-MB TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 12 TO 17°C RANGE,
SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITHIN THIS
FLOW, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA,
POTENTIALLY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FORCING, AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED
IN COVERAGE. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE, A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND AMPLIFY, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. 850-
MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20°C RANGE,
APPROXIMATELY 4 TO 8°C ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE SHOULD
ALSO PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, INCREASING SUNSHINE, AND BOUNDARY-
LAYER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WITH UPPER TROUGHING COMING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND
TRAVERSING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER OUR REGION, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS (15 TO 20 DEGREES), WITH HIGHS BEING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR WILL BE THE WARMEST FOR THE WEEK.
25TH/75TH PERCENTILE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ARE 71 TO 75 RESPECTIVELY,
WITH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAVING AT LEAST A 30 - 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BREAKING 80 DEGREES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS, 20 TO 30 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. NBM
PROBABILITIES, WHILE TYPICALLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE,
STILL HAVE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES OFF TO OUR WEST, A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO OUR AREA. THERE STILL IS
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT
MOSTLY OUT OF NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY EVENING, WHILE THE EURO HAS IT
MOVING MORE SLOWLY AND STALLING OUT IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS FRONT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR COOLER, SEASONABLE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. QPF TOTALS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS POTENTIALLY
RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD COME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WHEN THE UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL CREATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING A STREAM OF GULF
MOISTURE UP INTO OUR REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE
GUIDANCE HAS AN INCREASING TREND OF PRECIPITATION, THERE STILL IS A
WIDE RANGE OF EXACTLY WHERE IT COULD END UP. GFS/EURO MODELS HAVE
TOTAL QPF, GENERALLY A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG ALONG AND EACH OF HWY 83. THE EURO
IN PARTICULAR HAS TOTALS AS HIGH AS 2+ INCHES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
CONVERSELY, HREF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH A 30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE, EAST OF HWY 83, WITH THE
PROBABILITY DROPPING TO 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A HALF AN INCH
OR MORE. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THAT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, ASIDE FROM THE
EURO SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST
DUSTING OF SNOW FOR THE SEASON. IT SHOULD BE HIGHLIGHTED THAT THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT AT THIS TIME. THE
POTENTIAL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IF THERE IS
ANY INCREASING AGREEMENT IN INTENSITY, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.
ASIDE FROM THE INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND MERGE BACK INTO THE MEAN FLOW WHILE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA. DAYTIME HIGHS HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO PERIODS OF
IFR/LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. THIS FOG WILL QUICKLY
END BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AT 10 TO 15KTS. WINDS
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT, AT 5KTS OR LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LABENZ
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...BROWN
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