446
FXUS63 KLBF 202337
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE, AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDY AND WARM FRIDAY, THEN COOLER IN THE 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TONIGHT, THE LATEST SREF AND HREF SUPPORT
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NE. LOWS FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEST TO THE UPPER
40S EAST. WEDNESDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WITH A CLOSED LOW OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEAKEN, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH UPPER 70S FAR SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE
OVER THE REGION. AMPLE BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE. ON THURSDAY, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL WARM TO 75 TO 80.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES, AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING
INCREASING PWATS OVER 1.0 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS VERY MILD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDY FRIDAY AREA WIDE, AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH. A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH HIGHS FRIDAY 77 TO
86.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
DAKOTAS SATURDAY, WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK WEST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS WITH A CLOSED LOW BACK ACROSS ARIZONA. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS CHANCES WILL PERSIST. WHILE STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, THE NBM 48 HOUR PROBABILITY OF 0.50 INCH OR
GREATER IS 50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR AREAS EAST OF GRANT THROUGH O'NEILL
ENDING 12Z MONDAY. THIS LINES UP SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE,
WHICH SHOWS RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 0.5 INCH TO NEAR 1.0 INCH. THE
ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST, EAST OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA THROUGH
AINSWORTH. HIGHS COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SATURDAY, AND
THE MID 50S SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY AND MUCH COLDER AIR. H85 TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD AS
0 TO -5C EACH DAY, AS SHOWN BY THE GFS WITH MEX GUIDANCE HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 40S. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY THE EARLY MORNING, WHICH MAY BRING LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING THE KLBF TERMINAL. EXPECTING THAT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT, LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...RICHIE
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