356
FXUS63 KLBF 211110
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THIS MORNING, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION, WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS TO FAVOR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, GENERALLY ALONG
A CURTIS-NORTH PLATTE LINE AND POINTS WEST. LOOKING AT MODEL AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER EXTENDING THROUGH THE
LOWEST 50 TO 150 MB, WHICH IS DEEPER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS,
FURTHER SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING AS
DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTES BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, SUPPORTING CLEARING SKIES,
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 15 TO 20°C RANGE, HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS, WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. FARTHER NORTHWEST, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD,
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S, AS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY MORNING, A SIMILAR SETUP TO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
POTENTIALLY CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH SHOULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, MAINTAINING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION AS LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
REMAIN AMPLIFIED, SUPPORTING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. WITH 850-MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 15
TO 20°C RANGE, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-
LAYER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. DESPITE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION, THE STRONGER UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED WEST OF THE REGION, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINS
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD ASCENT. AS A RESULT,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMIT NOCTURNAL
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
MIXING AND INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN UNUSUALLY MILD, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MORE THAN 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER, HIGHLIGHTING THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
FOR FRIDAY, DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, INCREASING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WYOMING WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL MIXING TAPPING INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW
ALOFT, AND PROMOTE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MILES PER HOUR.
LUCKILY THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION,
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET ANY GREATER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WON'T DRIFT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE AREA
HOWEVER, AND SHOULD STALL FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
MAY ARRIVE WITH THIS INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH NBM
PROBABILITIES OF >0.10" ONLY INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 10-20% ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE GREATER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED FROM FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, AND
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THE BROAD MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1"
BY FRIDAY, AND THESE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT VALUES
THIS HIGH WILL APPROACH THE 99TH PERCENTILE CLIMO FOR LATE OCTOBER,
WITH THE MOST ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE AT LEAST NON-ZERO MUCAPE IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A SWATH OF BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
(~0.5-1.5") THOUGH STILL DIFFER GREATLY ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS
OCCURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTY ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PLACEMENT, LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW, NBM PROBABILITIES
REMAIN HIGHEST (~50-70% OF >0.50") FROM ROUGHLY IMPERIAL TO O'NEILL
AND POINTS TO THE EAST. SHOULD ANY FURTHER EASTWARD TREND OCCUR IN
THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE (DUE TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SURFACE FRONT), THE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS COULD ALSO TREND OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO EJECT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, REACHING EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING.
THIS DRAGS A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY,
QUICKLY ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUICK CESSATION OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION, LEADING TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NO MIXED OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY
MORNING. THIS BRINGS A RETURN OF MUCH COOLER HIGHS AS WELL, WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO LEAVE THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY RETURNS ALOFT TUESDAY, BEFORE A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
BRIEFLY DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS MODERATING BACK TO THE LOWER
60S FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, LEADING
TO PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. THIS FOG QUICKLY
ENDS BY LATE MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON, AT 5 TO 10KTS. WIND THEN
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AT 5 TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LABENZ
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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