968
FXUS63 KLBF 212018
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FOG
POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING. WILL SEE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE MORNING HOURS AGAIN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S.
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR 50 DEGREES AND LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, GREATEST CONCERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
DENSE FOG, AS PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/4 A
MILE RANGING FROM 40 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THIS MORNING, IF CONTINUE TO SEE
TRENDS REMAIN OR INCREASE, MAY NEED TO ISSUE HEADLINES FOR
TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND 850 TEMPS AROUND
15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. WILL HAVE MODERATELY DEEP MIXING BY THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH. SFC TEMPERATURES INCREASE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS ON
FRIDAY. WILL SEE 850 TEMPS NEARING 20 DEGREES CELSIUS AND SHOULD
SEE THAT MIX TO THE SFC WITH ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY, ENDING THE WEEK. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS AND
FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE FRONT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO PASS THROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
AS THE COOLER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, MUCH COOLER WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. ALSO AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, THEN FULLY PASSING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LOW, BUT LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN. HEADING INTO
SUNDAY WILL STILL SEE RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL BUT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FOR TOTAL WEEKEND
RAINFALL, WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE WE GET CLOSER
TO THE WEEKEND TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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