741
FXUS63 KLBF 220833
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I- 80 AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM CDT FOR THESE
AREAS.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THIS MORNING, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA, WITH DENSE FOG EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
LOOKING AT SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, DEEP SATURATION
WITHIN THE LOWEST 75 TO 100 MB, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION, HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 4 AM TO
10 AM CDT FOR CHASE, HAYES, FRONTIER, PERKINS, LINCOLN, KEITH,
LOGAN, AND CUSTER COUNTIES, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
VISIBILITIES FALLING TO ONE-HALF MILE OR LESS. FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTES BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY,
SUPPORTING INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION, COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND 850-MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 15 TO 20°C RANGE, SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOWER
80S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN-STREAM
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, MORE THAN 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
FRIDAY MORNING, THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MIXING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THE SOUTHERN-
STREAM TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, INCREASING CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HEIGHT FALLS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING INTO
MONTANA. THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET, CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WINDY FRIDAY, THOUGH
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND THE AMOUNT OF MOMENTUM AVAILABLE FOR
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGER WINDS, CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW 850-MB TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO
THE 17 TO 25°C RANGE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-
LAYER MIXING TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WHERE DEEPER MIXING MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 80S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA,
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD APPROACH 25 PERCENT.
WHILE THESE VALUES CURRENTLY APPEAR MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED REGARDING THE OVERLAP OF THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONGEST WINDS, WHICH WILL BE
AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, COMBINED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 150 TO 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL,
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING
FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. AS A RESULT, HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION, AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES.
FRIDAY NIGHT, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA,
WHILE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA REMAIN WARMER, WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS BRINGS INCREASING COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER HIGHS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
TO THE 60S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE
300-305K LAYER ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE INCREASING SHOWER
COVERAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT, IN ADVANCE OF DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNER REGION. THIS PRECIPITATION
THEN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY, AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A DEEP TAP TO GULF
MOISTURE, PROMOTING PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE CLIMO FOR LATE OCTOBER. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE SLOW
MOTION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS, SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT LONG DURATION
EFFICIENT RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MEAGER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SUGGESTING SOME THREAT FOR A EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND FURTHER ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. THESE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING, BEFORE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT OVERHEAD AND LENDS
TO LESSENING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING SPREAD EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE
FEATURES BY MONDAY, WITH A SPLIT IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR. REGARDLESS, THE CONSENSUS REMAINS THAT THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO CONCERN FOR MIXED P-TYPES, AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH THE EXPECTED END OF
THE PRECIPITATION.
AS FOR TOTALS, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT (0.5-1"+) ACCUMULATIONS FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
IN FACT, NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARDS, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF >1" NOW AS HIGH AS 60-75% FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG
AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL TO AINSWORTH LINE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH THE ENTIRETY OF THE 0Z EPS, GEFS, AND CMCE
ENSEMBLE SUITE PAINTING QPF MEANS IN EXCESS OF 1" IN ROUGHLY THE
SAME CORRIDOR. THE EFI ALSO CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARDS WITH RESPECT
TO ANOMALOUS QPF, WITH AND EFI OF ~0.6-0.7 AND AN SOT >0 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS. TO SUM THIS ALL UP,
CONFIDENCE IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN A VERY BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL EVENT, WITH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SEEING ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5-1"+ THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY, ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK, THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT,
AND HIGHS WILL RETURN BACK TO THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TERMINALS THURSDAY MORNING, LEADING TO PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE THREAT FOR LIFR AT KLBF REMAINS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NOW, THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. FOG QUICKLY ERODES BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ037-038-057>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...LABENZ
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page