992
FXUS64 KLIX 291021
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
421 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST AND WEKA RETURN FLOW STARTS TO SET BACK UP.
FIRST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS MORNING AND RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP FOG
FROM BECOMING A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM. HOWEVER WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SPOTS WITH FOG. LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW LL TEMPS TO START TO INCREASE WITH LOWER TO
MID 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE MS COAST PROBABLY STAY IN THE UPPER 60S THANKS TO THE WIND
COMING RIGHT OFF THE MS SOUND. SAME FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NO METRO
WITH WINDS COMING IN OFF THE SOUNDS.
AS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, WILL WE SEE FOG OR MORE SO ADVECTION
FOG. WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSPORT DEEPER LL MOISTURE OVER RATHER COLD WATERS AND
COLD MARSHES. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR ADVECTION/MARINE FOG. THE
SREF IS INDICATING THAT AND SOME OF THE MOS IS TRYING TO INDICATE
LIGHT FOG. IF WE DO SEE THAT IT COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL
MS AND COASTAL LA EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MAIN ISSUE IS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHTS MUCH IF THE AREA FROM NEAR THE PEARL RIVER DOWN TO
GALLIANO AND WEST IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK JUST NUDGING
INTO THE NORTHWEST PARISHES/COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
OUR DEEP LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL ALREADY BE EJECTING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING AND BY FRIDAY MORNING MAY BE MOVING OUT
OF THE MID MS VALLEY ALREADY. THE DEEP MID LVL CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN
TO OPEN UP AS IT TRAVERSES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
S RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF IT THE COMBINATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM MID LVL
JET GREATLY INCREASING AND STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ERODING THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE, WILL ALLOW IT TO PLOW THROUGH THE RIDGE.
AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER EASTERN TX BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
COULD BE OVER THE OH VALLEY BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS SWINGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL BE
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT WILL BRING US THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. THAT PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 6Z AND
SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BY 18Z.
SO LOOKING AT THE SEVERE RISK, AS WE HAVE SAID THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
IT IS POSSIBLE BUT THINGS JUST DON'T QUITE LOOK TO LINE UP ENOUGH TO
SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT THERE
IS CHANCE THAT MANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-12 IN SELA STRUGGLE TO SEE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. FIRST THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE
WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
HGHT FALLS ALSO ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
SOME OF THE BETTER FALLS BEHIND IT, BUT THIS IS LOOKING QUITE
MINIMAL. THE INCREASING MID LVL WINDS AND VERY STRONG DYNAMICS
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL ILLICIT A
RESPONSE IN THE LL WITH A STRENGTHENING LL JET WHICH MOVES FROM EAST
TX INTO NORTHERN MS AND THEN THE TN VALLEY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE
LL JET WILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH THE TAIL
JUST CUTTING INTO SOUTHWEST MS. LL CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATLY
LACKING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT FOR SOUTHWEST MS WHERE
WILKINSON AND AMITE COUNTIES WILL BE JUST ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
JET PROVIDING A SMALL WINDOW FOR MUCH BETTER LL CONVERGENCE AND THAT
MAY BE A FEW 1-2 HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF 6Z. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE EVENING WITH A LITTLE BETTER
DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD COINCIDE WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SHEAR AND IF THERE ARE ANY STORMS THAT ARE A
LITTLE MORE POTENT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 0-1 AND 0-3 SRH
VALUES OF 200 AND 300 M2/S2 AND THAT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT. BUT
WILL WE HAVE ANY POTENT STORMS? THE THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST NOT
LIKELY AND THAT IS MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE TIMING. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DIURNAL MIN WITH RESPECT TO
INSTABILITY AND THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THAT IS GENERALLY PREFRONTAL
TROUGHS NEED THAT INSTABILITY TO REALLY GET GOING AS THESE FEATURES
DON'T QUITE HAVE THE FORCING LIKE A TRUE COLD FRONT DOES. IN
ADDITION WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH AND MUCH OF THE LIFT AND FORCING LAGGING BEHIND AND TO THE
NORTH THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS LINE COULD BECOME VERY NARROW
AND MAY EVEN ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF
IT.
GIVEN A LOT OF THE NEGATIVES IN PLACE I'M NOT REALLY SEEING A BIG
EVENT OUT OF THIS FOR OUR AREA. AGAIN NOT TO SAY THERE WON'T BE A
FEW STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS BUT THAT RISK MAY BE COMPLETELY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BETWEEN THE 3 AND 9Z HOURS. THAT WHOLE
TIME FRAME WON'T BE FAVORABLE BUT THAT IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE LINE TO
MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS LINES UP WITH SPC'S SLIGHT RISK. NOT TO
COMPLETELY BY PASS THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BUT THE PROSPECT
OF THAT IS NOT LOOKING HIGH EITHER. WPC DID PLACE THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THAT MAY BE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SUFFICIENT PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME BUT AGAIN THIS LINE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
NARROW SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MUCH QUIETER AND WE
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND IS ACTUALLY LEFT OVER
PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH LEFT IN PLACE FROM OUR CURRENT
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST ACROSS
MEXICO AND COULD EVEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE TX AND MEXICAN COAST. IT
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS RIDGING AHEAD OF IT KEEPS IT STUCK OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BUT IT EVENTUALLY SLIDES
EAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND WITH IT A RETURN OF RAIN. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
FORECAST TERMINALS AT ISSUANCE TIME WERE A MIXTURE OF VFR
CONDITIONS AND MVFR CEILINGS, WITH A FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS OVERCAST
ABOVE. WITH SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS CIRRUS
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, IT
LEADS TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THE TREND OF LOW STRATUS INSTEAD OF
DENSE FOG IS THE PROPER DIRECTION TO TAKE THE FORECAST. THERE MAY
BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE CONDITIONS FALL TO LIFR, BUT THE PREVAILING
CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE IFR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO ABOUT 15Z. AT
THAT POINT, CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR, AND LIKELY
REMAIN THERE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. /RW/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY ALLOWING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RETURN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LEADING TO THE LIKELY
NEED FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 69 56 75 60 / 20 10 30 90
BTR 74 60 80 63 / 20 10 30 90
ASD 70 56 75 60 / 10 10 10 70
MSY 69 58 75 61 / 10 10 10 60
GPT 67 53 68 59 / 10 10 10 60
PQL 72 54 73 61 / 10 0 10 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB
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