551
FXUS64 KLIX 292149
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT STAGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
SWITCHING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO A MORE ONSHORE/RETURN FLOW. THIS
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST, HOWEVER, A FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE IS ON THE WAY. WITH THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT TO LOW END
MODERATE WINDS, SEA FOG MAY ADVECT INLAND. DIDN'T ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LANDBASED ZONES AS THERE IS STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT INLAND EXTENT AND DENSITY. HOWEVER, ALREADY
LOOKING A BIT FUZZY ON THE TWIN SPAN CAMERAS. SREF HAS ALSO BEEN
VERY BULLISH WITH POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
AND ADJACENT COAST. UNLIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE STAT
GUIDANCE WAS OVERPLAYING VIS REDUCTIONS, SREF WAS VERY PERSISTENT
AND IS VERIFYING THE BEST AT THIS JUNCTURE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE
SREF LEAD THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG THE ONLY STORY LEFT IS WARMTH, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS. AS THE H5 CUTOFF LOW MOVES EAST, OUR
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM US AGAIN INTO THE
70S...WITH BTR PERHAPS APPROACHING 80F THURSDAY AFTERNOON. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
EYES SHIFT UPSTREAM AS A BROAD SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO SPIRAL
EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND
MOVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. AS IT MOVES OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, A SURFACE FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH OUT REGION.
HOWEVER, BEHIND THE FRONT ONLY MINOR DROPS IN TEMP BUT A FAIRLY
DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY FOG
ISSUES.
AS FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL/STORMS,
OVERALL LARGELY UNCHANGED. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING LOOKS TO BE OVER
ARKANSAS AND THE MIDSOUTH REMOVED FROM OUR REGION. FURTHERMORE,
TIMING ISN'T THE BEST FOR DESTABILIZATION. THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
YOU'RE GOING TO NEED ONE OF THE OTHER..CAPE OR STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN ORDER TO GET MUCH OF AN APPRECIABLE THREAT. IN THIS
CASE, BOTH SEEM TO BE LACKING. WHAT ISN'T LACKING HERE IS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHERE A 45-55KT LLJ DEVELOPS. WITH THAT 0-1KM SRH
VALUES ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE AND MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO MUCH
OF A GOOD THING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY TO GIVE UPDRAFTS MUCH
STRENGTH, WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY ROLL ANY WEAK NARROW UPDRAFT THAT
TRIES TO INITIATE LIMITING VERTICAL STRETCHING OVERALL. THAT SAID,
IF A ROGUE UPDRAFT DOES GROW WIDER/STRONGER A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. THIS IS WHY SPC HAS DELINEATED
(RESPECTIVELY) A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
CLOSER TO THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND TIMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. IN ADDITION, WPC DID HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL ERO FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE SAME TIME. OVERALL, THIS WILL BE
EXTREMELY LIMITED GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BAND OF
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH, NBM90 SHOWS A REASONABLE WORST CASE OF
AROUND 2 INCHES OF SO ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIER BEFORE QPF
SIGNAL REALLY DECREASES WITH THE EASTERN ADVANCEMENT OF THE BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOESN'T REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND CONTINUES A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH SUGGESTS NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF A COOL DOWN, ALTHOUGH DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION. WITH A CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK,
GLOBALS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AGAIN AS AN ONSHORE
FLOW TAKES SHAPE. MODELS SHOW A SURFACE FRONT STALL TO OUR
NORTH WITHIN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW AND PERHAPS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN BY TUESDAY WITH AN H5 TROUGH TRYING TO MANEUVER TOWARD OUR
GENERAL VICINITY. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
MOSTLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. OVERNIGHT, LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS MIXED IN TERMS OF
HOW LOW REDUCTIONS WILL GO BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP
VIS ABOVE 1SM FOR ALL TERMINALS, HOWEVER, CIGS WILL LOWER BELOW
500FT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY. SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK LEADING TO SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KT AT
TIMES. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE INTO THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD OVER A VERY COOL SEA SURFACE LEADING TO SEA FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY OR SO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
LEADING TO THE NEED FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES NEARSHORE AND SCA FOR
THE OUTER WATERS OF THE GULF. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
(FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 57 74 59 71 / 10 30 100 20
BTR 61 80 61 73 / 10 20 90 10
ASD 57 74 61 73 / 10 10 60 30
MSY 59 74 62 73 / 10 10 60 20
GPT 54 69 59 71 / 0 10 40 50
PQL 54 73 62 76 / 0 10 30 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ570-
572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ572-
575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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